Iavarone, Dutrow: Crossed wires again

Controversy is never far away from the Big Brown camp, and it loomed again Saturday in two television interviews that aired on ESPN. IEAH Stables' co-president Michael Iavarone told ESPN's Jeannine Edwards that last month he called trainer Rick Dutrow to tell him he was taking IEAH's horses out of his barn. "I said, 'Rick, I need to come get the horses,' " Iavarone said. Later Saturday, Edwards caught up to Dutrow in Saratoga's paddock before the Whitney Handicap, where Dutrow denied that Iavarone had threatened to remove IEAH's horses from his stable.

Iavarone said "the main investor in our company [James Tagliaferri]" talked him out of it. "It was a done deal," Iavarone said. "But [Tagliaferri] stopped me. He said, 'Take a step back, count to 100, and think of what Rick has done for you and for us."

Winning the Derby and Preakness with an undefeated colt, plus training horses that produced most of IEAH's nation-leading $7.3 million in earnings this year, are pretty impressive achievements, and they were enough to get Dutrow a reprieve. Since being put on "a short leash," in Iavarone's words, Dutrow has won graded stakes with Frost Giant, Kip Deville and Benny the Bull for IEAH.

This latest "he said, he said" controversy came on what should have been a happy day for the embattled crew, because Saturday morning Big Brown worked 6 furlongs in a sharp 1:10.96 at Aqueduct. Dutrow said the colt is "training exceptionally well" for his comeback race, the Grade I Haskell Invitational Sunday at Monmouth Park.

Iavarone had every right to be furious with Dutrow last month. Two days after IEAH announced its horses would run drug-free except for Lasix starting Oct. 1, Kentucky stewards announced that Dutrow faced a 15-day suspension for a clenbuterol overage. "I spoke to him the week before we made the announcement," Iavarone told Edwards, "and he had known since mid-May about the clenbuterol positive."

Dutrow never told Iavarone, who was angry and embarrassed when he learned about the violation through the media. "It undermined what I was trying to put forth," Iavarone said.

In Saturday's ESPN interviews, Iavarone characterized his relationship with Dutrow as "strained." Dutrow disagreed, saying he "didn't know it was strained" and that he thought their problems had been "smoothed over."

Apparently not, and now the flashpoint shifts to the Jersey Shore, where Big Brown will try to redeem himself after his last-place meltdown in the Belmont, where Kent Desormeaux pulled him up at the top of the stretch. "I can't wait for the Haskell," Desormeaux has said. Neither can Dutrow, who said, "I can't wait to get him in the gate again.''

Iavarone also said he expects a 180-degree reversal from a Triple Crown finale he called "a horror show. It was the worst nightmare come true." But in Monday's editions of the New York Times, Iavarone said another failure "could very well be the end of Big Brown's career."

All or nothing at all has been the pattern for Big Brown, who looked like a superstar at Churchill Downs and Pimlico and a crippled giant at Belmont Park. Will it all end Sunday, or will he raise hopes for a triumphant autumn campaign? Whatever you say about the Alpha male of his generation and his connections, they're never boring.

Dutrow is scheduled to be among four horsemen speaking Tuesday on a national teleconference, so more fun could be in store.

All wet at the Spa

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- When people hear I'm going to Saratoga to cover racing, they think I'm one of the luckiest people in America. "You get paid to do that?" Yes, it's a pleasant assignment, but like anything else, it becomes a drill, and the life of a journalist on the road is hardly glamorous. I love the destination but the long drive from Long Island is boring, and travel can be most aggravating at times.

Such as what happened to me Saturday evening, after a downpour complete with sky-splitting lightning (horizontal, vertical and diagonal) delayed my exit from the press box for an hour. I had parked near the training track, perhaps a quarter-mile from the grandstand, and former Newsday colleague John Pricci gave me a ride.

When I saw my car sitting in about 4 inches of freshly fallen water, I became concerned. Were the brakes wet? Was the engine damaged? I took off my shoes and socks, put them on the hood of John's car, and rolled my pants up above my knees. Something was floating near the door on the driver's side, and I'd bet it had been alive an hour before. I couldn't guess its species, but it might have been the rare land jellyfish thought to have been extinct for centuries in the foothills of the Adirondacks.

So I looked like Jed Clampett as I got into the car, which thankfully started. Then I drove to meet a fellow writer at a barbecue place, answering a call from my son on Long Island on the way. So I was driving barefoot and talking on a cell phone (two crimes) as I drove past the barbecue joint, which was dark and closed because of a power outage. When my pal Bob showed up, he saw me standing outside my car, my feet still bare and my pants still rolled up above my knees. He said he expected to hear the banjo from the movie "Deliverance" at any moment.

Saratoga's Saturday stakes, part 4: the Whitney Handicap

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Unlike the preceding race, the Go for Wand, the Grade I, $750,000 Whitney is very complicated.

Can Saratoga-loving speedster Commentator turn back the clock at age 7 and repeat his Whitney win of 2005? There are horses for courses, unquestionably, but he's not the horse he was then, and I'm going to play Rising Moon. Trainer Rick Dutrow said the versatile 5-year-old had a lung infection when he ran third June 28 in the Suburban Handicap won by his stablemate First Giant. Rising Moon can stalk and fire, and turning back from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/8 should amplify his stretch punch.

The play: Rising Moon, win and place, and box him in exactas with Solar Flare and A.P. Arrow, the beaten favorite in the Suburban who's 2-for-3 at the Spa.

Saturday's Saratoga stakes, part 3: Go for Wand Handicap

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- I can't get past the Bobby Frankel entry of Ginger Punch and Spring Waltz, who could easily finish 1-2. Can't bet on them or against them, so if you're playing the Pick 4, it seems like a no-brainer single. Of course, some thought that about Big Brown on Belmont day.

Saturday's Saratoga stakes, part 2: the Vanderbilt

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- There's a ton of speed in here, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's Abraaj could sit off a hot pace contested by First Defence, Black Seventeen, Bustin Stones and E Z Warrior. Abraaj worked a bullet 4 furlongs July 19 at Saratoga and could be sitting on a big race. He signaled his improvement on Belmont Stakes day, when he closed strongly for third, missing by only a half-length against the nation's leading sprinter, Benny the Bull.

The play: Bet Abraaj to win and box him in exactas with First Defence and Bustin Stones.

Saturday's Saratoga stakes, part I: The Diana

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Saratoga is offering a $500,000-guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4 Saturday, and I'll give you my semi-educated guesses while awaiting Friday's 2:45 p.m. "Sunset Racing" first post. I haven't decided whether I'll play the Pick 4 or just a few of the races, but here goes with the opener.

7th race, Grade I Diana Stakes, 1 1/8 miles (turf, fillies and mares 3 and up)

This is an extremely tricky race, and I landed on the rail horse, longshot Bit Of Whimsy, who has won a Grade I at the distance, has won over a course with give in it and is working well for Barclay Tagg. She's also a generous 12-1 on the morning line, which looks like excellent value.

Bit of Whimsy had better be on her 'A' game, though, because there are plenty of tough ladies in here, led by Vacare, Wait A While and Rutherienne. However, Wait A While dislikes turf that isn't firm; Vacare seems better suited for a mile and hasn't won at 9 furlongs in almost two years; and Rutherienne disliked a swampy course last time out at Colonial Downs. I'd be willing to throw that race out, though, and Rutherienne won a stakes last year at the Spa.

The play: Bet win and place on Bit Of Whimsy and key her in exacta boxes with Rutherienne, soft-ground lover Lady Digby and Dynaforce, who just missed last race against the very tough Mauralakana.

Apply Mousse liberally

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Friday's Saratoga feature, the Grade II Lake George Stakes on the grass for 3-year-old fillies, offers an excellent French shipper, Mousse Au Chocolat. She's 6-for-7 lifetime in the exacta, with her worst race a 3-length defeat (she ran fourth) to the star French filly Zarkava in a Grade III at Longchamp in April. Mouuse au Chocolat was coming off a five-month layoff there, so she probably wasn't fully cranked, and the undefeated Zarkava is one of the early favorites for Europe's biggest race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Mousse au Chocolat brings along her regular rider, the gifted Christophe Lemaire, and has won three times on soft ground, which is how the Spa's inner turf has been rated. Unfortunately, she's only 2-1 in the morning line, and I fear she'll be bet down because only one opponent, the Bill Mott-trained Zee Zee, looks capable of beating her. Zee Zee went wire to wire on a drenched Churchill Downs course on Kentucky Oaks day, and if she gets loose under Kent Desormeaux, she could be hard to catch.

The play: $25 to win on Mousse au Chocolat, with a $7 exacta of her on top of Zee Zee, and a $3 exacta reversing the two.

Kent 0-for-2

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Kent Desormeaux finished fourth on his second and final mount of the day, Freakstein in the eighth race, and remained at 4,999 winners.

Kent's still at 4,999

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- Kent Desormeaux remained one win shy of 5,000 after his mount in Thursday's sixth race, Karakorum Playmate, faded badly in midstretch after dueling on the lead from the start. Desormeaux didn't ride the first five races and has only one more chance today, on Freakstein in the eighth race, scheduled for 4:57 p.m.

Top of the world

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- I've ripped up mutuel tickets at 77 tracks all over the globe and have yet to find a better place to watch a race than the roof of the press box at Saratoga. The main track is small enough (a mile circumference) that if your horse has colors that stand out, you don't even need binoculars.

The fifth race Thursday was satisfying to me from an artistic and financial perspective. I stood high above it all as I watched my suggested play of the day (see yesterday's blog if you think I'm making it up) go wire to wire and pay $6.10. Thank you, Mine All Mine, for making the afternoon feel like it was all me. Too bad I didn't bet more than $20 on the maiden filly trained by 2-year-old demon Wesley Ward. Even when you win, you can get aggravated.

Wet and mushy

SARATOGA SPRINGS -- There is a permanent Saratoga Lake, and now it has company, because heavy rain the past three days has created many temporary bodies of water on the picturesque backstretch. If another monsoon hits, dedicated horseplayers might need water taxis to ferry them to the front gates.

Unlike Long Island, where the sandy soil absorbs torrential downpours within a few hours, the ground in upstate New York allows lots of standing water. The grass up here smells and looks different, and the mud has a slimy, greasy quality I've not seen elsewhere.

Speaking of turf, there has not been a race run on it yet at the 2008 Spa meeting. Wednesday's five grass races were moved to a sloppy main track on a day when there were 44 scratches. Overnight rain Tuesday that continued throughout Wednesday afternoon limited the opening-day crowd to 18,127, almost 12,000 fewer than last year's, which had excellent weather.

On Thursday, the first race, a steeplechase for allowance jumpers, was postponed, a rarity, and three grass races were shifted to the sloppy dirt. All that was done Wednesday afternoon, so at least handicappers were forewarned. By Thursday's fourth race, there were 34 scratches and counting. The sun was out by then, but it will be a few days before the two grass courses aren't swampy. Friday's feature, the Lake George, is aptly named, and is scheduled for the grass, but we'll see about that.

Last summer's glorious weather allowed all but six Saratoga grass races to be run. In two days, they've already lost eight, not counting the jump event. I hope this isn't an omen. NYRA management does, too, and is rooting a lot harder than me.

Sloppy start

Even in horse heaven, sometimes you have to suffer. There was plenty of aggravation to endure at Saratoga yesterday, when the opening card of its 140th season was marred by relentless rain and 44 scratches. As expected, five turf races were moved to the sloppy main track, where little of significance occurred.

Unless you had the $26.40 winner, Jardin, the highlight of the featured Grade III Schuylerville Stakes for 2-year-old fillies was a wisecrack by Tom Durkin. As Jardin crossed the wire far in front, Durkin called it “a regatta.”

Ocean Colors was the 3-2 favorite, and the daughter of Winning Colors, the last filly to win the Kentucky Derby, didn’t run like mother. Ocean Colors set the pace before backpedaling to last, but her uncoupled stablemate, Jardin, bailed out trainer Steve Asmussen with a runaway under Robby Albarado. My $5 across-the-board play on far-back Boom Town Sally was a waste of money, as was the $2 exacta box of her, Ocean Colors and off-the-board Renda.

At least Kent Desormeaux got off his schneid, breaking an 0-for-30 slump with a daylight victory on Jazz Nation in the sixth race. It was victory No. 4,999 for the 38-year-old Hall of Famer, who is named on four horses today. Desormeaux will become only the 23rd rider to reach the 5,000-win plateau.

I plan to leave the Island Thursday morning and hope to arrive at the Spa midway through the card. Reminder: Friday’s program begins at the unusual time of 2:45 p.m. The only other “Sunset Friday” card will be Aug. 30, to kick off the meet’s final weekend.

Today’s play: I couldn’t find anything I liked in the Spa’s Thursday feature, the 6-furlong Sanford Stakes for 2-year-old males. My only bet might be in the fifth race, a 5½-furlong event for 2-year-olds. Trainer Wesley Ward, a whiz with 2-year-olds, scratched Mine All Mine from the Schuylerville for this much easier spot. She’s 7-2 on the morning line but could be much lower. She’s working well at Saratoga for her return off a two-month layoff.

END IT

Hello, Saratoga

It’s always a highlight when Saratoga comes around because it’s by far the year’s best meeting. Unfortunately, ever since NYRA extended it from the original four weeks to five and then finally to six, the quality of the racing inevitably has been diluted. Wednesday’s opening card is a typical example.

Now they could card 10 races of mules, goats and pigs on the Spa’s first day and people would still fill the place and bet tons. Wednesday’s card doesn’t look much different than a typical Belmont program in late June. It features five grass races that are in serious jeopardy of being moved to the main track by the 60-percent chance of rain, which jumps up to an 80-percent of thundershowers by mid-afternoon. Two maiden events, one for New York-breds and one for babies, are uninspiring and inscrutable. Then there’s an optional claimer that looks playable, a $20,000 claimer that serves as the finale, and the stakes, the Schuylerville for lightly raced 2-year-old fillies.

I’ve always found that the fewer races I play at the Spa, the better I do, and I might not bother to log on to my Internet account today. If the track is wet, I might take a stab in the Schuylerville with Monmouth shipper Boom Town Sally, who’s bred to love slop. She’s by Is It True (beat Easy Goer in the mud at Churchill in the 1988 Juvenile) out of a mare by Java Gold (won the 1987 Travers in the slop). If I do bet Boom Town Sally, I’ll key her in exacta boxes with likely favorite Ocean Colors and Mine All Mine.

Belmont on race day

Have you ever wondered what race day is like at Belmont? Videojournalist Marc Serra takes you there in this video.

Belmont Stakes photos

Here's a photo gallery from today's 140th Belmont Stakes. Click here to view.

Big Brown

Here's a photo gallery of Big Brown. Click here to view.

Reaction to Big Brown's defeat

What was your reaction to Big Brown's defeat at the Belmont? Vote here.

Complete coverage of the Belmont

Here are some other stories from today's 140th Belmont Stakes:

Fans endure the heat at Belmont. Click here to read.

Toilet troubles at Belmont. Click here to read.

PETA protest at Belmont. Click here to read.

Big Brown falls short of Triple Crown

Big Brown didn't deliver - at all.

Long Island's favorite horse failed miserably in his quest to become the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years when he pulled up and finished last in a huge upset in the 140th Belmont Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park.

Da'Tara, a 38-1 longshot, was the wire-to-wire winner.

"Long before we went into the last turn, I had no horse," jockey Kent Desormeaux said.
Asked what went wrong, Desormeaux said, "I have no idea."

Big Brown's defeat was a bitter blow to his Long Island connections, which include both of his major co-owners from IEAH Stables, Michael Iavarone (Holbrook) and Richard Schiavo (Woodbury), plus trainer Rick Dutrow (Long Beach) and Desormeaux (Garden City).

On Friday, Dutrow said: "Big Brown will win - easily." He also called the horse's victory a "foregone conclusion."

Big Brown, a 1-4 favorite, became the 11th consecutive Triple Crown hopeful to fail to win the so-called "Test of the Champion." The last of the 11 Triple Crown winners was Affirmed in 1978.

The 3-year-old bay colt had previously won the Kentucky Derby by 4¾ lengths and the Preakness by 5¼. Big Brown was 5-0 in his career and had won by a combined 59 lengths. He was trying to become the second undefeated horse to win the Triple Crown; the first was Seattle Slew in 1977.

Big Brown ran the Belmont steroid-free. Dutrow had been giving Big Brown the steroid Winstrol every 15 days, but he said earlier this week that Big Brown would run the Belmont without the injection. Dutrow said Big Brown had not been given Winstrol since April 15 while he was stabled in Florida.

Big Brown raced with a slight quarter crack in his left front hoof. The injury, which was considered minor, was patched on Friday.

Desormeaux is winless in six tries at the Belmont. In 1998, riding Real Quiet with a Triple Crown in sight, he finished second by a nose to Victory Gallops.

Big Brown's chances seemed to get a boost early Saturday morning when Casino Drive was scratched after he re-aggravated a bruise on his left hind hoof. The injury was discovered Friday morning, and later that day his veterinarian said the colt might have stepped on a rock or kicked something.

Casino Drive was considered Big Brown's toughest competition. The Japanese colt had won its only two races in impressive fashion.

"This morning he was feeling well, so we took him to the track for a canter," said Nobutaka Tada, the spokesman for Japan-based owner Hidetoshi Yamamoto and trainer Kazuo Fujisawa. "He came back well to the stable, but later he started favoring his left hind again. It's not serious, just a small stone bruise, but the timing is terrible."

The Belmont, at a mile and a half, is the longest and toughest test of the three classics.

Who scraped the track?

Times for the first three dirt races today at Belmont have been very fast -- 6 furlongs in 1:08.8; 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.70 and a mile in 1:34.88. Maybe in the Belmont I'll take the lead, improve my position and dazzle the figure guys.

Live blogging from Big Brown's stall

Big Brown here, and I'm kind of bored, waiting for my date with destiny that's only 4 1/2 hours away. Here's a good one: On the same day Icabad Crane is running against me in the Belmont, a horse named Washington Irving raced in the Epsom Derby over in England. Washington Irving didn't lose by a head -- he was up the track -- and neither will Icabad.

Enough with the literary references. I'm told that the animal-rights protestors on Hempstead Turnpike outside Belmont Park today had a sign that compared me to Barry Bonds. I guess just because it's "clear" that I'm going to "cream" the competition, they hate me. OK, a little Winstrol (it's legal in New York, by the way) has entered my system, but I wonder if any of those holier-than-thou folks are taking prescription drugs that also are legal.

Now I want to weigh in on the greatest issue of our times: Whether Joba Chamberlain should start for the evil Yankees or pitch the eighth inning. I can't remember a team babying such a huge guy so much by limiting him to a pitch count. What if my trainer said I would only run 1 3/8 miles in the Belmont because he's limiting me to a furlong count? Humans are a weak species. Too bad horses don't run the world.

Brilliant!

Big Brown here. As you could tell by my workout Tuesday, my hoof isn’t bothering me. What is getting on my nerves is that I'm still not being consulted over marketing deals. If -- I mean when -- I win the Belmont for the Triple Crown, I’m going to be hooked up with some outfit called 16W Marketing. How come nobody consulted me and I had to read it in Neil Best’s column? And he didn’t even bother to call me for confirmation.

The star of the show is always the last to know. My agent, Scott Boras, dropped the ball on this one, so if I’m out of the loop, he’s off my payroll. I’ve arranged an independent deal that plays off my name and off the Irish heritage of the person who knows me best, Michelle Nevin, my beloved exercise rider. When I go off to stud, we’re going to have one teary hugfest. There’s nobody I’m going to miss more.

Anyway, Michelle and I are going to do a commercial for Guinness that I dreamed up. The narration: “Big Brown is a champion, and so is the big brown beverage from the Emerald Isle.’’ Michelle is from County Tipperary, so we’ll sing “It’s a Long Way to Tipperary” as she hoists a Guinness and a bunch of leprechauns dressed in IEAH’s silks dance around. I can hear them now in the pubs of Dublin: “Boy-o, this champion harse is also a jane-yus.’’

Betting advice for JW3368

My fan JW3368 asks whether she should put Casino Drive underneath me in the Belmont exacta. No, toss him out, because he's more raw than chopped meat. I recommend a $40 Big Brown/Denis of Cork cold exacta. He'll plod on to get up for second, 10 lengths behind, as the racing universe worships me. Send it in, and thanks for the love.

Foot fault

This hoof thing has been annoying, but it didn’t freak me out when they discovered it Friday. Even the great ones have weak spots. Okay, I have brittle feet. None of the horses chasing me can run. Whose problem is worse?

My agent, Scott Boras, is working on cross-marketing schemes to cash in on the hoof deal. He’s greedy and no money-making opportunity ever gets past him. The week after the Belmont, I’m shooting an “I’m Gellin’ ” commercial, and then I’m promoting a new line of horseshoe-shaped running shoes for Nike. The world is my feedbag, and I’m hungry for more.

The big horse is back

Big Brown here. I’m back on the track and back on the blog, and I’ll tell you why I cut off this writer for a week. He was trying to hustle me for a book deal, bugging me constantly. Then my hoof thing came up Friday, so I got a little edgy and bummed out.

Before that, my mother, Mien, called from Kentucky and said all the mares down in Lexington were gossiping about how obnoxious I’d become. She was so upset and so embarrassed. So I thought it over and decided “No press.’’ It’s lonely at the top, and once you’re up there, all the media wants to do is chop you down. You’re just a commodity. I’m an affectionate, easygoing horse, but even I can take just so much.

Still, who knows how much longer I’ll be in the spotlight. How many more times will I race? Stud duty at Three Chimneys is my future, and I know I won’t be running as a 4-year-old. I hope I can make it back to Saratoga for the Travers and then go to the Breeders’ Cup, but you never can tell. I can hear you thinking, not only is this horse a killer runner, but he’s smart, too. As my boss Michael Iavarone said, “Big Brown is all class and takes care of himself on the track. He not only outruns the other horses, he out-thinks them, too.”

I’m going to miss reading quotes like that, so while I’m still racing I’m going to keep talking, too. The hoof’s feeling fine, so bring on the Belmont.

Four-legged rock star

Well, I’m settled in at Belmont Park after another media madness welcome on Monday, five days after the same routine when I showed up at Pimlico. Don’t get me wrong, I love the attention, but do you think 200 horses would wait in the rain to see a human being walk out of a van?

Saturday was an all-time high for me, getting syndicated in a record stud deal before blowing away those clowns in the Preakness. I don’t like to be obnoxious, but I could have given them a 100-yard head start and lapped them. I can’t believe all the morons who bet on them to beat me. What a dopey species.

I’ll be Horse of the World for the next few weeks, so I have to use my clout. I’m going to pick the mares I’ll be bred to at Three Chimneys, and I’ll use a three-tiered screening process. First, my wonderful Irish mother, exercise rider Michelle Nevin, will check them out for me. Snooty bluebloods need not apply. It’s the personality, not the pedigree, that matters to me. Then I’ll check our compatibility profiles on EquineHarmony.com. Breeding and looks aren’t everything, you know. The ones who vet out will go on my version of “The Dating Game.’’ I’m negotiating with HRTV and TVG for the television rights.

Ready to get it on

BALTIMORE -- Sorry for not blogging Thursday, but it's time to get my game face on and put on the war paint. I'm after the 12th Triple Crown, and I have to minimize the distractions. I've got a lot of stuff on my mind, such as my stud deal falling through, but I expect my genes will be in demand. It's just a question of where I end up as a stallion, not when.

I know I won't be running as a 4-year-old, so there's no sense holding anything back. My trainer is concerned about having to run me back on two weeks' rest for the first time, but I'm not. Did you look at the past performances of the dirty dozen that are taking me on Saturday in the Preakness? If I were a betting colt, I'd play Icabad Crane underneath me in a cold exacta.

Thursday was a nice morning: good gallop, sunny weather. Then, just like at Churchill Downs the day of the Derby, hundreds of humans were gawking at me as I got a bath. I imagine some of the writers were thinking up interesting questions such as "Uh, what kind of soap do you use on him?" and "Does Big Brown always get a sponge bath, or does he sometimes take a shower?" Oh, well, next year I'll be at a beautiful farm, passing on my rare and royal DNA, while these clowns are watching the soap bubbles run off another 3-year-old. If I were them, I'd consider a career change.

Video: Nick Zito on dirt vs. artificial tracks

Horse trainer Nick Zito holds court with reporters to discuss his views on dirt vs. artificial tracks, this year's hot-button issue in horse racing.

Moving day

Big Brown here. Well, I've enjoyed the relative peace and quiet here at Churchill Downs during the last 11 days since the Derby, but now it's time to head for the Preakness. My plane leaves today for Baltimore, and I'll be at Pimlico, they tell me, by 7 o'clock Wednesday night. I'll be flying with hopeless longshots Tres Borrachos and Racecar Rhapsody, who should stay in Louisville to run in a non-winners-of-1 allowance. I assume I'll be flying first-class and they'll be in the cargo hold, but you never can tell.

I'm not looking forward to being mobbed again by media creeps. Even my collaborator, Mr. Ed, has been getting on my nerves lately, asking dumb questions. Will you predict that you'll win the Triple Crown? Do you think you'll race as a 4-year-old? You ought to see them bug my trainer, Mr. Rick, crowding around him and shoving microphones in his face as if he's Moses who just came down from the mountain with the 10 Commandments. It's just a horse race, you clowns. Get a little perspective on the universe.

I guess it's good I'm feeling a little aggravated and feisty, because it's time to put on my game face. I'll be all business from here on in.

Big Brown: A hot property

My new agent, Scott Boras, and I are considering marketing outlets besides UPS. Chocolate is a natural, and we’re negotiating with a bunch of candy companies. One in Geneva offered me a Swiss bank account, which would help with my tax situation. Cocoa would be a perfect fit for me, too. So would a tie-in with an old Louisville favorite, the “Hot Brown,” an open-faced turkey sandwich with gravy. Another possibility is the Hollywood Brown Derby, the replica of the old Hollywood landmark restaurant at Disney MGM Studios in Florida.

My “friend” Curlin, aka Mr. Horse of the Year, is jealous of my Derby win, and he’s getting on my nerves. Last night on his way past my barn, he said, “Here’s something with plenty of commercial potential for Big Brown: Roto Rooter.”

Wise guy. Boras said that wasn’t such a bad idea, but I overruled him. I’ve got class, and it’s not about the money. Well, not completely.

Big Brown wants his fair share

Media creeps, thanks for coming to my news conference. My new agent, Scott Boras, has encouraged me to look out for No. 1, which I am, being an undefeated Derby winner and all. So here’s my list of demands:

1. I have a white birthmark above my left foreleg, and I want to use that space for advertising, all proceeds of which go directly to me. In the Preakness I’ll wear a UPS patch on it, and I want the same payoff that my jockey, Kent Desormeaux, gets for wearing it on his pants.

2. At stud, I want final approval of the mares that will have my kids. Their breeding and conformation is important, but personality counts, too. Any blueblood that acts like a snotty, spoiled brat at our introductory lunches will be off my list. No obnoxious princesses need apply. You can find my compatibility profile on EquineHarmony.com.

3. My owners are big-time money men with Wall Street connections. So how about hooking me up with investment opportunities? Retroactively, starting with my first race, I demand 10 percent of my earnings, which comes to $210,000 or so. I want some of it invested aggressively, and the rest put into high-yield, long-term municipal bonds. I need security for old age. When I get to Pimlico Wednesday afternoon, come over to the barn and let’s talk.

And nobody should be surprised by what I’m saying. When Kent said I was an intelligent horse, he wasn’t kidding.

It's all about the money

I see my owners and jockey just made a marketing deal with UPS. Well, good for them, but can I ask one question: Uh, did you forget someone? Like me, the one making all this possible? My new slogan: What can you do for Brown?

I’ve made $2.1 million for my owners, and the jockey and trainer got 10 percent. Can you estimate how much I’ve gotten out of that? Answer: zero. I’m told that the Derby win makes me worth $30 million as a stallion, but my life hasn’t changed. I’m still eating the same boring hay and oats I got before anybody heard of Big Brown.

Am I wrong to want to cash in on myself? I earn millions by running like a demon, and I haven’t got a cent to my name. I hear my barn at Pimlico needs serious upgrading, and I’d like to pay for it myself. It’s my money and I need it now!

My owners have hooked up with UPS, so I’m going to hook up with Scott Boras, that greedy baseball agent. If that Prince of Weasels could get that choker A-Rod $25million a year, what could he get for me? When the pressure's on, I hit a home run, not a pop-up like that glorified loser. Boras says he can get me appearance money at Pimlico, and if they won’t pay, to threaten a work stoppage. Dumb animal, huh? Don’t push me.

(Tomorrow: Big Brown and his agent issue a list of demands.)

Big Brown: Feeling his oats

To pass the time yesterday at rainy Churchill Downs, I looked over the past performances of my Preakness “challengers.” Their connections must be kidding. Just declare the race a walkover for me and let these jokers give pony rides.

Stevil and Tres Borrachos are eligible for a non-winners-of-1 allowance, so they throw them in against me? Get out of my way, little fellows. The only one who looks like a comer is the gray horse, Harlem Rocker, who’s 3-for-3 and won the Withers for Todd Pletcher. I saw him run at Gulfstream, and he’s got enough speed to warm me up for a mile or so. After that, unless somebody slips some undercooked crabcakes into my feed bucket the day before the race, I’ll be long gone.

This writer is starting to ask dumb questions, such as what are my favorite sports teams. All right, in baseball, the Phillies, of course, and in football, the Colts and the Browns.

(Tomorrow: Big Brown contemplates his financial future.)

Big Brown feuds with Curlin

I saw the video of Curlin strutting into Churchill Downs’ paddock on a red carpet Saturday, a few hours before I became racing’s new cult hero. Mr. King of the World, there’s a new sheriff in town, and the name is Big Brown.

Unlike Curlin, I had no problem becoming the first horse since 1915 to win the Derby in my fourth lifetime start. That was too much to ask of the magnificent chestnut, who was third in the Derby last year and so far back you had trouble finding him. He didn’t have to come from post 20, either, and he wasn’t hung out wide for a mile like I was. Hey, I give him props for winning the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but I love reminding Mr. Horse of the Year that he lost the Belmont to a girl. When he goes to stud, you think the mares won’t be whispering about that?

So I called Curlin on his cell Saturday night and offered to swap my Derby DVD for his. He whinnied, called me a young punk and hung up, but I got back at him big time. His barn at Churchill isn’t far from mine, so I got all my stablemates to chant “Rags to Riches, Rags to Riches” just before Curlin’s bedtime.

OK, so I’m getting a little full of myself, but when you’re an undefeated Derby winner, you’ve got a license to strut, babe.

(Tomorrow: Big Brown runs down the Preakness field.)

Big Brown speaks

(Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown has agreed to blog for newsday.com during the Triple Crown series. After tense negotiations in stall 12, Barn 22 on the Churchill Downs backstretch, the charismatic colt accepted Newsday’s offer of 40 peppermints a week to share his thoughts with Ed McNamara.)

I hope I can trust this writer, because he seems to be a bit odd. He told me he has made bets at 75 tracks on four continents, as if I’m supposed to be impressed. That’s a real lifetime achievement, Eddie boy, something to carve on your tombstone. I reminded him of what W.C. Fields said: “Horse sense is what keeps a horse from betting on people.”

Speaking of people, at 8 o’clock Saturday morning, 10 hours before the biggest race of my life, about 200 of them stood there gawking while my groom gave me a bath. “Ooooh, look at the soap bubbles getting rinsed off the handsome brown horse.” Kind of freaky, and no, I wasn’t real comfortable with it. Do you think 100 horses would stand around and watch a human being take a bath? Sometimes I think the wrong species is running this world.

(Tomorrow: Big Brown starts a friendly feud with 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin.)

The longest day

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- My apologies for not blogging the past two days from Derby City, but my old laptop has been very persnickety about getting to the Web. Technology can be an evil demon.

We're almost up to the eighth race, meaning two from the Derby, but there will be a wait of more than two hours before the big one. There's no simulcasting here today, so boredom becomes a tyrant and many turn to drink. As a devoted reporter, only coffee will pass through my lips until all business is done.

Good news for me: Despite high winds and the possibility of tornados (none materialized), none of the discarded mattresses near my motel moved Friday night, when 2 to 3 inches of rain fell in the Louisville metropolitan area. Churchill Downs' main track dries so well that the track was upgraded from sloppy yesterday to fast by the second race.

Future shocker?

LOUISVILLE -- A few weeks ago, after cashing on Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes, I threw $5 on him and got 38-1 odds in the Derby Future Wager's third and final pool. His connections were still uncommitted to the Derby, but I figured he'd go. A horse is only 3 years old once, and who's going to sit out the Kentucky Derby with a live one who's bred to get the distance?

Not owner Donald Adam and trainer Graham Motion, who's in with a chance. Motion, a low-key native of England, is getting enthusiastic, which I was pleased to hear.

"I'm actually starting to get a little excited about it," Motion said Tuesday morning. "He's really in good form. I tend to be apprehensive going into these things. So much can go wrong.''

Especially with future bets. I'm usually willing to squander $20 each year on them, and this year's first three stabs were on horses who didn't make it to the Derby: Majestic Warrior and Blackberry Road (not good enough) and Crown of Thorns (injured). I connected last year on Rags to Riches at 8-1 to win the Oaks, and with Monarchos at 17-1 in the 2001 Derby. So I'm ahead of this silly game, which is more than most future pickers can say.

All Adriano has to do is win the Derby in only his second race on a conventional dirt surface (he finished ninth in his first one) and I'll be $195 richer. If he doesn't revert to his hot-blooded prerace behavior, then runs the race of his life and works out an excellent trip, I've got a great chance. I'm not counting my money.

Mechanical rooster

SHEPHERDSVILLE, Ky. -- There's plenty of nice scenery out here in the wide-open spaces of Bullitt County. After driving through rolling hills and farmland I came upon a sight that Mother Nature can't top: dozens of mattresses piled about a hundred feet from my motel.

I guess the place is under renovation. Then again, maybe the management is just airing out the mattresses to have them nice and fresh for the Derby crowd that will be rolling in Thursday night. I hope the feral tabby cat prowling by the dumpster didn't mistake any of them for a king-sized litter box.

This morning, at about 4:30, I was awakened by a metallic crash that sounded like an explosion. In my sleepy haze I thought maybe a truck had shown up to collect the mattresses and dump them somewhere else. Thousands are employed to move large objects from one place to another, so maybe a long-distance mattress trucker was working the graveyard shift.

I managed to fall asleep until about 8 o'clock, and I looked out the window and saw all the mattresses were still there. So was the cat, but the dumpster no longer was overflowing. So it was the garbage man waking me before any rooster was stirring.

Went to the 24-hour Denny's next door, and as my scrambled eggs and grits came, the Wurlitzer juke box began playing Billy Joe Royal's 1966 hit "Down in the Boondocks." I'm not sure why, but suddenly I had the giddy feeling of being in tune with this little corner of the universe. It was an emotional moment.

Some Kentucky Derby links

Ed McNamara is reporting from Louisville all week. To read more, click on the links below:

The Kentucky Derby has been a thorn in the side of great horses and trainers. Story.

Synthetic-track horses have signaled a new era in handicapping. Story.

The Kentucky Derby is a one-of-a-kind event. Story.

McNamara's Kentucky Derby horse-by-horse analysis. Story.

Kentucky Derby notebook: Two Irishmen make Derby debut. Story.

Thirsty in Shepherdsville

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Hotel prices for Derby week here are obscene, so I try to save money for the company by staying out of town. The savings are substantial and I don't mind a 25-minute drive on Interstate 65, but sometimes life out in the country has its disadvantages.

After a stopover in Detroit, I arrived in Louisville Sunday night, picked up the rental car at the airport and headed south to Shepherdsville, about 25 miles away. The accents there are seriously rural, and there are plenty of wide-open spaces. I'm sure that 60 years ago it was quaint and lovely, but now it has every franchise operation in America spread on both sides on I-65. At 10 o'clock I had a snack at the local Wendy's (chicken wrap, milk) and decided to go buy a six-pack at the White Lightning convenience store. Unfortunately, I was inconvenienced.

Every night before bed I like to have a beer. Just one, but it's a need. This time, this aging creature of habit was denied. At the White Lightning there was a lock on the beer case, and a sign: By county law, no beer sales on Sunday. No! I asked if there was a bar around, and the woman at the register said, somewhat apologetically, "This county is dry on Sundays, hon. The nearest bar is about 12 miles up the road."

I was tired and didn't feel like driving, so I bit the bullet in Bullitt County. And you thought life on the road was such fun.

Jinxes? Not really

Henry Ford, the grouchy mechanical genius who put America on wheels, was a farmboy who didn't like horses. He also said, "History is bunk."

No race is overanalyzed more than the Kentucky Derby, and students of history can get mighty rigid when handicapping it. No horse has won the Derby in its fourth career start since 1915, which is quite a while. Not even Curlin, the eventual 2007 Horse of the Year, could overcome his lack of experience in the Derby, where he ran a distant third after a troubled start. Big Brown has run only three times in his lifetime. So even though he's clearly the fastest horse in the 134th Run for the Roses, is this heavy favorite an automatic throwout?

Certainly not. Very few horses run for only the fourth time in the Derby, so there's the "small sample" factor. Since 1900, besides Regret, the filly who won it in 1915, and Curlin, only nine Derby runners had three starts. Only Curlin finished in the money, but he was by far the most gifted of this group. Here are the odds on the rest: 39-1, 10-1, 39-1, 12-1, 33-1, 12-1, 19-1, 11-1, 26-1. Except for Curlin, none of them was highly rated, and the odds on four would have been much higher if they had not been part of the mutuel field or a coupled entry.

Eventually, all streaks end. Last year, Street Sense became the first to complete the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double. Then Rags to Riches became the first filly since 1905 to win the Belmont Stakes. Of the first 22 Juvenile winners, only 12 made it to the Derby, so there was another very small sample. Same thing with fillies in the Belmont. Between Tanya's victory in 1905 and Rags to Riches, only 10 females took a shot at "The Test of the Champion."

On paper, Big Brown looks better than Curlin did before last year's Derby, and this year's 3-year-olds appear far weaker than the 2007 bunch. So if Big Brown holds his form and doesn't have a bad trip, he has an excellent chance. Street Sense had the most impressive form entering the Derby and won, and it would be no shock if that happened again. The best horse taking the Derby as the favorite in consecutive years? What a concept. Who knows, it might even start a streak.

Learn to forget

With only three days left in Keeneland's spring meeting, it's most unlikely that I can rally to break even. That's all right, because I cleaned up there last fall, and I guarantee my recent losses are a mere flesh wound compared to the gutting many have suffered. The relentlessly wacky results were reflected in an eight-day Pick 6 carryover. Granted, the Pick 6 isn't a mania in Kentucky as it is in California, so most of the smart money is directed to other pools, but everybody having an oh-fer for eight straight days? When did Horseplayer Nation get that stupid?

How many chased that rainbow for more than a week and lost their pot of gold? Quite a few, no doubt. Favorite players fared particularly badly in Keeneland's marquee races, the Ashland and the Blue Grass. Among the heavy favorites who spun their wheels on the quirky Polytrack were Pyro and Country Star. People who lost tons of money on these locks must cringe when reminded of Keeneland's slogan: "Racing As It Was Meant To Be." Now it's more like "Random Results, And Never Ask Why." As jockey Robby Albarado said after Country Star finished up the track: "There's no rhyme or reason to it. She felt great."

But there may be a way to rebound from this inscrutable meet: Ignore everything that happened on Keeneland's main track when racing shifts to Churchill Downs on Saturday. As the Doors' Jim Morrison sang long ago: "Learn to forget, learn to forget." If a horse closed to win in Lexington, assume it won't in Louisville. If a horse got burned out on the lead at Keeneland, assume it will keep going at Churchill. Even if you're wrong, you'll be getting much better odds than you should.

Last chance to make the Derby

As usual, Keeneland's Lexington Stakes offers very marginal horses a final opportunity to add enough graded-stakes earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field, whether they belong there or not. The last time the Lexington produced a Derby winner was in 1999, when Charismatic won both races at big odds. It's most unlikely that there's another Charismatic in Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Grade II on the Polytrack.

The top four appear to be Big Glen (4-for-6 on Polytrack); Atoned (a teaser who disappointed again in the Illinois Derby); Todd Pletcher's Behindatthebar (2-for-3 on Santa Anita's synthetic track) and the Peruvian-raced Tomcito (a distant third to Big Brown in the Florida Derby). I'll be sitting out the Lexington, which is filled with sprint types and two horses who just broke their maiden. Don't look for the Derby winner in here.

My only bet of the day will be in the previous race, the 5-furlong Giant's Causeway Stakes on the grass for fillies and mares. I'll play Jazzy to turn the tables on Danceroftherealm, who pulled a $23.80 upset on Jazzy last time out at the Fair Grounds. Jazzy got bottled up inside at a key point at the top of the stretch and didn't get clear until too late, and her late move wasn't enough. She ran out of ground as Danceroftherealm got first run on her down the center of the course. There's plenty of cheap speed to set up Jazzy's powerful finishing kick, and if she's on her game, she should win at 5-2 or so.

I virtually almost had it

More than $800,000 poured into the Pick 6 pool Wednesday at Aqueduct, chasing a two-day carryover of almost $206,000. Megabucks syndicates and small players risking $32 or $48 watched a string of short-priced winners guarantee there would be no three-day carryover. There would be no life-changing scores.

Favorites She's My Sunshine ($5.30) and Bebob ($4.80) won the first two legs before Volos ($9.10) got my virtual ticket of $576 halfway home. Since I never play the Pick 6, I wasn't kicking myself for not investing in the suggested play on yesterday's blog. When two more chalks, Raw Silk ($5.80) and Cosmic ($4.10), took the fourth and fifth legs, I was alive to three horses (3-2 favorite Bontempi, Wonderous Day, Sir Cryptomite) in the finale. Unfortunately, none of them was paying much, but when Bontempi opened a daylight lead in midstretch, I was pleased. Maybe somebody who took my suggestions would make some money, even though a Bontempi victory would have paid only $902. Better than ripping up tickets, and handing out a Pick 6 in cyberspace should count for something, right?

But no. It was right there, and then it wasn't. Out of the pack emerged the professional maiden Sky Dragon, who went off at 3-1 despite an 0-for-13 career record, including 0-for-10 on the grass. He passed Bontempi with maybe 100 yards to go and completed a Pick 6 worth $1,015. The five-winner consolation paid a puny $21.40, not even worth collecting if you'd blown $576, only to be tortured.

Such excruciating moments are recalled with horror years later. As Sky Dragon burned up my mind-bet ticket, I was so thankful that I don't play the Pick 6.

Carryover chaos at the Big A

I briefly considered taking a stab at Wednesday's two-day Pick 6 carryover of $205,953 at Aqueduct, but I changed my mind after checking out the first race in the sequence. This $35,000 maiden claimer on the grass has little turf form or pedigree, so I won't be investing in a pool that might approach $750,000. But if you want "guidance," I'll suggest the horses I would use if forced to play it. Just remember, nothing is cheaper than free advice, especially when dealing with somebody else's money. If my arithmetic is correct, this ticket would come to $576 -- $2 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 3. Good luck, but remind yourself why it's called disposable income.

4th race: SHE'S MY SUNSHINE and EULOGIZE have shown brief flashes of ability on the grass, more than you can say about the rest of this sad group.

5th race: BEBOP earned a top fig in breaking his maiden last out, and he finished second to PARKY when he won as a first-timer in late January.

6th race: Went four deep with JIMMY JUMP JUMP, who just missed at this level two starts ago; Allen Jerkens class dropper/Florida shipper WHO CAN BLUFF; VOLOS, an Asmussen shipper from Gulfstream who has speed; and the likely favorite, the Contessa entry of BALLADO ALERT and MACKINAW.

7th race: RAW SILK went wire to wire in her grass debut but was DQ'd; gets a free shot and could be singled to pare down the ticket. JELLY ROLL was respectable in two grass tries in Florida, and SONNETS WAY closed well on turf for fourth Dec. 31 in her debut.

8th race: COSMIC is the only one in the field who's won at 1 1/8 miles. PLURACITY has speed, won his last two and chased some good 3-year-olds in Florida, including Holy Bull winner Hey Byrn and Smooth Air, runner-up to Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown in the Florida Derby.

9th race: If you're still alive (most unlikely), a dozen inscrutable New York-bred maiden turfers stand in the way of your life-changing score. SIR CRYPTOMITE ran second last fall in his only grass try. WONDEROUS DAY hit the board in two of his three turf races. Barclay Tagg's DIRTY WATER DOG is working well for his grass debut after a three-month layoff since he bombed at 7-5 as a first-timer.

Good luck, and if by some miracle this ticket hits, I'll be expecting a generous tip.

Adriano and me

After suffering through a depressing betting slump on Keeneland's first two weekends, I finally had something to smile about: Lane’s End Stakes winner Adriano is likely to run in the Kentucky Derby after breezing a half-mile in 50 seconds Sunday at Churchill Downs.

If the long-striding son of A.P. Indy is out there when they're playing "My Old Kentucky Home," then I won't have to make a win bet. I threw $5 on him at odds of 38-1 in Derby Future Wager 3, and he's not going to be anywhere near 38-1 on the first Saturday in May. So even if he's never in contention and finishes up the track in Derby 134, I will have gotten great value on my money and will have lost intelligently. I feel like I've already won.

I figured that trainer Graham Motion would decide to take a shot even when he and owner Don Adam were on the fence last month, calling a Derby try "unlikely." When was the last time a horse was held out of the Derby when it was healthy and had enough graded-stakes earnings to qualify?

"I’m pretty sure we’re going to go for [the Derby] after this -- I don’t know why we wouldn’t,” Motion said Sunday. “Believe me, I want to win the Derby as much as anybody else does, but I don’t think it’s engraved in my mind that I’ve got to get there. I want to get there for the right reasons, and I think when we analyze it and we talk with Mr. Adam and with [jockey] Edgar [Prado], I think it is the right thing to do at this point. That was depending upon what happened today, and I think it went well.”

Unlike last year, when Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun headed an outstanding 3-year-old crop, the talent is more diluted. Big Brown will be the favorite, but he's run only three times, and it's been 93 years since a horse won the Derby in its fourth lifetime start. Even superstar Curlin couldn't do it, running a distant third behind Street Sense after a rough trip, so if Adriano continues to develop, he'll be a longshot who's in with a fighting chance.

Adriano has won on Polytrack and on turf, but in his only start on a conventional dirt surface he ran ninth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. But he had serious excuses that day, starting from post 12 and having a troubled trip. A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year who won the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic, has sired dozens of major stakes-winners. Adriano has the looks, the stride and the pedigree to get 1 1/4 miles, and many of his rivals don't. I'm rooting for you, my son.

Pyro gets burned

So what happened to Pyro Saturday as the heavy favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes? Was it an inability to handle the Polytrack, or was he just due for a bad race, or was he incubating a virus? It's hard to say, but he didn't fire at all at Keeneland, and his never-involved 10th-place finish will push up his odds 2 or 3 points on Derby Day.

“He just didn’t give me the same run he has,” jockey Shaun Bridgmohan said. “I asked him for run around the turn to try and set myself up pretty good and I didn’t get the response I was hoping for. I realized on the turn that it just wasn’t going to be his day. He usually gets himself traveling well by that point. He’s usually a pretty handy horse, and today he just wasn’t.”

If you have Future Wager tickets on Pyro, take solace in the knowledge that the Blue Grass has been the most misleading Derby prep in the past 30 years. Since 1978, only Spectacular Bid (1979) and Strike the Gold (1991) have pulled off the Blue Grass-Derby double, so think twice before boosting the chances of Monba and Cowboy Cal, Todd Pletcher's 1-2 Blue Grass finishers.

But although you can argue that Pyro's Blue Grass should be a throwout, Derby winners don't run that poorly in their final prep. In the past 15 years, only Giacomo (4th, 2005), Thunder Gulch (4th, 1995) and Sea Hero (4th, 1993) were out of the money in their last tuneup for the first Saturday in May. Since 1937, only two Derby winners -- Iron Liege (1957, 5th, Derby Trial) and Count Turf (1951, 5th, Wood Memorial) did worse than those three. You don't have to win your dress rehearsal, but performing miserably is a major concern.

Keeneland: Pretty and pretty weird

There isn't a more attractive racetrack in North America than tradition-rich Keeneland. Set in the heart of the Bluegrass country of central Kentucky, it gladdens the hearts and soothes the souls of Old School horse people. Its slogan is "Racing as It Was Meant to Be," but they're talking about style, not substance. To those more interested in cashing tickets than absorbing atmosphere, and that means most of us, the motto should be "What Happens at Keeneland, Stays at Keeneland."

There are few tracks whose results translate worse elsewhere than Keeneland, and that hasn't changed since its switch to a synthetic surface in the fall of 2006. A place that was insanely biased toward inside speed has done a 180, with few wire-to-wire winners on the Polytrack. It used to be that if your horse wasn't in the first three early, you were angry and prepared for defeat. Now you're happy if your horse trails until the top of the stretch. At least the turf course hasn't been tampered with. It's generally fair, though tilted toward midpack runners and closers, with front-runners often taking the worst of it.

Keeneland's marquee event, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, annually is hyped as a major Kentucky Derby prep, but since 1979 only one horse, Strike the Gold in 1991, has pulled off the Blue Grass-Derby double. (Street Sense almost did it last year, losing the Blue Grass by a nose.) The Blue Grass is a valuable conditioning race, but its winners are traditional underperforming underlays on the first Saturday in May. Its also-rans have done far better in the Derby, usually at juicy odds.

Saturday's Blue Grass has drawn a field of 12, its biggest in 25 years, making it an excellent betting race. Pyro, one of the top 3-year-olds, will be heavily favored off impressive wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. But this is his debut on Polytrack, and his connections don't want to knock him out to win it. For him, it's an obvious final step to the Derby, the main goal. So even if he wins at 6-5 or so, he's a bad bet. Other contenders who have trained impressively at Keeneland are Big Truck, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire, and I'd think twice about leaving them off your Blue Grass tickets.

There's an interesting two-day double linking Friday's Maker's Mark Stakes on Keeneland's grass with the Blue Grass. If you can bet it on your Internet site or at OTB, I recommend using Kip Deville and War Monger in the Maker's Mark with Pyro, Big Truck, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire.

War Pass a bad fit for Derby

So you bet on War Pass at 6-1 and 9-2 in the first two Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools? If you misplaced the ticket, don't bother looking for it, because it's not going to be worth anything.

The 2007 2-year-old champion's odds in Future Pool 3 shot up to almost 15-1 after he was run down in the final 70 yards of the Wood Memorial last Saturday at Aqueduct. The mass of horseplayers diving off the bandwagon had a far better assessment of his second-place effort behind Tale of Ekati than his connections did.

After the race, in which War Pass was drifting in the stretch and ran the final furlong in a crawling 14 seconds, trainer Nick Zito said, "We didn't win, but it's just like a win. This is the first time I have finished second and can say it's just like a win, because of everything he had to endure and overcome. He vindicated himself."

Well, not really. Zito is correct that War Pass had a very demanding trip in the Wood, where he was hounded for a half-mile in a very quick 46.07 seconds by no-hoper Inner Light, the rabbit for stablemate Court Vision, who plodded in third. War Pass showed guts in opening a daylight lead on the turn, but Tale of Ekati didn't dazzle anyone with his rally. He ground away while chasing a very weary horse, and despite the very hot early fractions, the final time of 1:52.35 made it the slowest Wood since 1952. Running fast early and slow late is no way to prep for 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs.

Still, owner Robert LaPenta was upbeat, saying, "He got a lot out of this race. This was a great conditioning race."

Maybe, and it was a dramatic improvement over his previous try, a stunning last-place finish at 1-20 odds in the Tampa Bay Derby. That effort was too bad to be true, and the colt probably flipped his palate. But to think that War Pass is a viable candidate to win the Derby is illogical. His need-to-lead style and questionable distance pedigree, combined with the likelihood of facing other front-running types, weigh heavily against him. He has quality and the potential to be a champion miler, but he has the classic look of a pace casualty on the first Saturday in May.

It sounds as if Zito knows that, too. You don't win the Derby twice -- Strike the Gold (1990) and Go for Gin (1994) -- without being aware of what it takes.

"We'll take him to Kentucky," Zito said. "We'll take it one day at a time. If War Pass has a good month, we'll see if we can make it to the Derby."

Bridgmohan's high on Pyro

It was late August of 2005, and Shaun Bridgmohan was feeling pretty good about himself. After being based in New York for seven years, the native of Jamaica (the island, not the section of Queens) moved to the Midwest a few months earlier. When he won the riding title at Arlington's spring/summer meeting, the 1998 champion apprentice was in demand again. That's when he hooked up with a relentless win machine, and the partnership with trainer Steve Asmussen is still thriving.

"Steve asked me if I'd ride for him that fall at Keeneland," said Bridgmohan, who dominated the recently completed Fair Grounds meet thanks mainly to his Asmussen connection. His 2008 win rate is an outstanding 21 percent, and he's on his first serious Kentucky Derby contender, Pyro. The son of Pulpit is 2-for-2 this year, dominating the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby in New Orleans.

"He's one of the better horses I've sat on," Bridgmohan said Tuesday. "He's pretty easy to ride, a straightforward horse, and I don't think you've seen the best of him. I don't think I've gotten to the bottom of him."

Bridgmohan rode also-rans for Asmussen in the past two Kentucky Derbys, finishing 12th on Zanjero last year and 15th on Broken Vow the year before. This spring he's in the spotlight on a colt that's never been out of the money in six tries and will be heavily favored Saturday in the Grade I, 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

David Fiske, the racing manager for Pyro's owner, Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, called Pyro "the total package." No one but Bridgmohan has ridden him in a career that began last July with a nose victory in a sprint at Churchill Downs. As long as Pyro stays healthy and holds his form, he'll be one of the marquee horses there during Derby week.

A Blue Grass victory appears likely but not mandatory for Pyro. "We're looking at it as his first of possibly four races in the next eight weeks," Fiske said, which translates as "We're not looking to knock him out to win." Bridgmohan already knows what he has, so this will be a paid dress rehearsal for the first Saturday in May.

"When he came from last in the stretch in the Risen Star, he showed me the explosive kick he has if I need it," the rider said. "In the Louisiana Derby, the pace wasn't very fast but he still gave me the late kick I wanted. He's answered everything I've asked of him."

Me the VIP

The envelope saluted me as a VIP and contained a "cordial invitation" to Hollywood Park's handicapping championship June 28-29. Immediately, I was suspicious. In the spirit of Groucho Marx, I won't get involved with any group whose standards are so low that it wants me to join.

The top 10 finishers will receive a spot in the 2009 Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas, and the first three in Hollywood's Gold Cup Handicapping Challenge will get $50,000, $10,000 and $5,000. There are plenty of perks, too -- a cocktail party the night before, free valet parking and buffet, free admission, programs and Racing Forms and special VIP room rates. Then came the catch. The buy-in to the "real money" tournament is . . . $7,500, which kind of priced me out. I could handle losing that much over five years or so, but traveling across the continent to risk seven large in two days would not be fun or relaxing. I enjoy playing $80 no-limit hold 'em tournaments, but I'd never consider ponying up 10 grand for the World Series of Poker.

Yet if you're interested in risking big bucks in late June in Hollywood's Sunset Room, contact George Ortuzar (georgeo@hollywoodpark.com) or Tonya Brown (tonyab@hollywoodpark.com). And be sure to mention my name, because that and $7,500 will get you in the door.

Right result, wrong surface

If you scroll down two posts to "Springtime in Kentucky," you'll notice that I suggested taking a shot with Boss Lafitte if Friday's Transylvania Stakes stayed on the turf. I was almost certain it would not, and it was moved to the synthetic main track at Keeneland because of torrential overnight rains in Lexington.

Because Boss Lafitte was 0-for-2 on the synthetic surface at Arlington, losing by a combined total of 15 lengths, I decided not to bet him at 9-1 odds. How prudent, and how unfortunate. He won, paying $21.20, as I cringed. I can't say I should have had him, because my pick was based on turf only. However, he did get a positive workout comment from the Keeneland clocker, and as they say, "Got a hunch, bet a bunch."

Sometimes you cash, and other times you have a good story. Blogs are great places to vent.

Mister Ed's Saturday stakes picks

WOOD MEMORIAL: If not for War Pass' attempt to prove that his Tampa Bay Derby flop was a fluke, there would be no compelling storyline for New York's marquee prep for the Kentucky Derby. War Pass doesn't have much to beat, and I agree with his owner, Robert LaPenta, that the 2007 2-year-old champion should win the Wood. I think he'll make the lead without much trouble and never give it up. He probably flipped his palate at Tampa Bay Downs, because his last-place shocker was too bad to be true. If he's 8-5 or better, I'll be betting him.

My gut feeling is that War Pass will revive his reputation with a front-running win, bringing back many of those who jumped off his bandwagon last month. So he'll go off at underlaid odds in the Derby, get caught in a speed duel and back up at the top of the stretch. Then he might bounce back in the Preakness at a nice price. We've all been through that movie many times, so why not again?

ILLINOIS DERBY: Like War Pass at the Big A, a loss would hurt Denis of Cork more than a win against a weak field would help him. After skipping the Rebel at Oaklawn, David Carroll ships the unbeaten (3-for-3) son of Unbridled to suburban Chicago for what looks like easy pickings. Well, maybe. If you could get the morning-line odds of 2-1 on 'Denis,' he'd be worth a bet, but you won't, with 7-5 or 8-5 more likely. His deep-closing style also is a concern in a field without a lot of speed.

I see Golden Spikes getting loose on the lead, with Atoned tracking in midpack and Denis of Cork laying back until the very long Hawthorne stretch. Atoned will get in front inside the eighth pole but get caught, as usual, in deep stretch, by Denis of Cork, with Golden Spikes holding for third.

SANTA ANITA DERBY: As they did March 1 in the Sham Stakes, Colonel John and El Gato Malo will be maybe a length apart just behind the pacesetter, who this time will be the very fast Bob Black Jack. The front-runner is quality speed, but unless he's allowed to get away with easy fractions, he'll be overtaken in midstretch. El Gato Malo will turn the tables on Colonel John by winning a tight one, and both will go on to Louisville with nice records and bankrolls but absolutely no experience on conventional dirt. That will be a major theme for the 134th Derby: How seriously should you regard California horses who have raced only on synthetic tracks?

In other Saturday stakes, I like Fracas in Gulfstream's Pan American Handicap at 1 1/2 miles on the turf, and I'll go with Country Star to beat fellow multiple stakes-winners Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. I handicapped the rest of Aqueduct's all-stakes Pick 4 but didn't have any firm opinions about the Bay Shore Stakes, Excelsior Handicap or Carter Handicap. That doesn't mean I won't gamble on them. It just means that I shouldn't.

Springtime in Kentucky

One sure sign that spring is here is being able to walk Linus the black Lab without a coat. Another is opening day at beautiful Keeneland, which begins its three-week meeting Friday. Unfortunately, the weather is likely to be miserable, with an 80-percent chance of showers coming after heavy rain hit Lexington on Thursday. Before putting in its synthetic surface in 2006, Keeneland almost never took races off the grass, but now it does, so Friday's feature, the 1 1/16-mile, Grade III Transylvania Stakes, could be taken off the turf.

If it stays on the grass, the stakes-winning Prussian, a Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux collaboration, will be heavily favored and perhaps vulnerable. The front-running Prussian couldn't handle Monmouth's water-logged turf course the day before the Breeders' Cup, but chances that Keeneland's turf will be as soggy as that are most unlikely, and if it is, the course won't be used Friday. If it stays on, I'll be tempted to try to beat Prussian with Boss Lafitte, which may be a silly stab. But 'Boss' is a son of Dynaformer, whose offspring, for whatever reason, do exceptionally well on Keeneland's turf. Boss Lafitte also got a positive workout comment by the Keeneland clocker.

Back later with picks for Saturday's Derby preps -- the Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby -- plus a few other stakes at Aqueduct and Keeneland.

The Future Is Now, Part III

The third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager runs from Thursday through Sunday, but it's a bit late to dive into this kind of a pool. The money in future bets nearly always is made early on, when most people are taking wild shots or overbetting the leading 2-year-olds. If you have a strong opinion on a promising horse and can get what you consider overlaid odds, that's the time to get down. This year I was into stabbing mode, and barring a miracle, my $5 bets in Pool 1 on Crown of Thorns (injured, won't run), Blackberry Road (not good enough) and Majestic Warrior (great pedigree, two lousy preps) are lost and gone forever. Boo hoo.

I can't recall ever getting involved in Pool 3. Anyone who took the ever-popular "all others" in Pools 1 and 2 is rooting hard for the latest phenom, undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown, who was not a separate interest until Pool 3. They're also hoping that the overbet Pyro and War Pass go off form or bomb out at Churchill Downs.

I've scored this year on turf and artificial surface with Lane's End Stakes winner Adriano, so I might throw $5 on him while hoping that his connections will change their minds about skipping the Derby. The son of A.P. Indy was up the track with excuses (post 12, bad trip) in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, his only try on dirt. Maybe he deserves another chance, although they could probably find a less risky place to experiment than the Kentucky Derby.

After Adriano's 2 1/2-length romp in the Lane's End on Turfway Park's Polytrack, his owner, Donald Adam, told the Thoroughbred Times: "This is not on the dirt. I just think we'd have to think long and hard whether that would make sense for him. Because the worst thing in the world is if we were to do that and he did very poorly, it may set him back. We think there are a lot of very nice races to be run this year."

Wise words, but if Adriano runs well next time out, probably in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes on Keeneland's synthetic surface two weeks before the Derby, can Adam and trainer Graham Motion remain immune to Derby Fever? If so, good for them, and their admirable self-discipline should serve them well down the road. But maybe they'll surrender to temptation, as nearly all do, and think, "Well, there's only one Derby, so we're going to take a shot."

So this weekend I'm going to put $5 on Adriano, knowing I'm taking a chance (that he'll run in the Derby) that I'll get an even more unlikely chance (that he'll win). But bettor, beware: Do as I say, not as I do. I'm not recommending that you follow my convoluted illogic, but for $5 at odds of 20-1 or greater, I won't have any regrets.

'War Pass' must battle back in Wood Memorial

In Shakespeare's "Julius Caesar," a soothsayer tells the celebrated mass murderer to "beware the Ides of March." The Roman dictator ignores the weirdo's advice, which was a bad move. Down goes Caesar! Down goes Caesar! As Clemenza from "The Godfather" would have said, "Big Julie? You won't see him no more."

The most recent Ides of March, Saturday the 15th, also was a very bad day for Robert LaPenta, a New Yorker with Italian bloodlines. Like Caesar, his previously undefeated colt War Pass ran into an ambush and went down hard. Last year's 2-year-old champion finished last at odds of 1-20 in the Tampa Bay Derby as his stunned owner watched.

"That whole day had to be my worst in racing," LaPenta said Tuesday. "Seeing him flailing and in distress at the top of the stretch, I'll never forget that."

War Pass reared just before the gates opened and was squeezed back from both sides, which kept him from gaining his accustomed position on the lead. He never recovered and retreated meekly with a quarter-mile to go, leaving LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito disgusted and searching for reasons why.

"We scoped him twice and found nothing," La Penta said, "but I think the most likely explanation is that he flipped his palate and couldn't get his air. We don't really know what happened. If he flipped his palate, then we have a reason, but if he did, that's bad because it might happen again."

War Pass' chance to prove that his only defeat was a fluke will come Saturday at Aqueduct in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial, New York's most important Kentucky Derby prep. A solid comeback performance will send him to Louisville for the first Saturday in May. "Frankly, whether he wins or not isn't crucial to me," LaPenta said. "I just want to see him moving forward. I want to see how he reacts mentally and physically [to the Tampa Bay Derby].

"It's going to be a day of a lot of apprehension and stress, and we're looking forward to seeing which War Pass shows up. But if he's at the top of his game, he should win this race."

Hail to the king and the phenom

Four hours after Curlin emphatically reaffirmed his position as king of the four-legged world, Big Brown supplanted Pyro as the Kentucky Derby favorite. Curlin's 7 3/4-length runaway in the $6-million Dubai World Cup was expected; a loss, or even a tight win, would have been surprising. Yet even though Big Brown was heavily favored, his five-length romp in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park sent reverberations throughout Derby Nation. Horses making their third career start aren't supposed to win a Grade I race by five lengths from way out in post 12 in a very fast 1:48.16.

"He's a major talent, possibly the best horse I've ever ridden," two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux said. "I'd have to say he's my Derby horse."

Big Brown capped a career day for trainer Rick Dutrow, who watched on TV from Florida as two of his horses won nine-figure stakes in Dubai. Sprinter Benny the Bull won the $2-million Golden Shaheen after Diamond Stripes took the $1-million Godolphin Mile. Big Brown's $600,000 payday boosted Dutrow's 10-percent winner's shares for the day to $240,000, but all he could do was rave about his 3-year-old star.

"I loved it," Dutrow said. "I knew the horses in this race couldn't catch him."

The undefeated Big Brown's career margin is 29 lengths, yet he'll have many doubters entering the May 3 Derby. He's not expected to run again until the first Saturday in May, and his lack of experience offers much grist for skeptics. Of the 17 horses to make their fourth lifetime start in the Derby, only one (the filly Regret, 1915) won. Even Curlin, with all of his talent, could manage only a distant third last year before taking the Preakness in his fifth start.

Big Brown's pacesetting style is a concern, too. Will he be able to outrun the cheap speed that always seems to show up in the Run for the Roses and not burn out? Or will he disappoint as another need-to-lead type, the 2007 2-year-old champion War Pass, did recently in the Tampa Bay Derby? Let the debates begin in Blogger Universe.

Saturday stakes picks

There's an endless flow of stakes on Saturday, starting at 9:30 a.m. with TVG's coverage of the Dubai World Cup card and continuing into late afternoon with the Florida Derby program at Gulfstream. Let's see if I can stay hot after touting three winners of Derby preps that all paid more than $10 the past three weeks.

Dubai Golden Shaheen: If you can get the 5-1 morning line on Benny the Bull, you'll be lucky. There's plenty of pace in here, and Benny can track the speed or come from midpack. Diabolical, the likely favorite under Frankie Dettori, is the main danger, and Idiot Proof also belongs in exactas.

Dubai Sheema Classic: Viva Pataca (2-for-2 at 1 1/2 miles on turf) looks like a deserving favorite, but at 2-1 or so he won't be very inviting. There's a buzz in Europe about last year's Arc runner-up, Youmzain, but he's a teaser who's lost five in a row and may need softer ground. Last year's Man o' War winner, Dr. Dino, also is in with a chance. Other exacta candidates that should be double-digit odds are Quijano, the filly West Wind and Oracle West. It looks as if 9-year-old Better Talk Now has lost a few steps.

Dubai World Cup: Concede the race to Curlin and play him in a cold exacta with improving 4-year-old Jalil, who's 2-for-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. As of early Friday, he was the 6-1 second choice among the English bookmakers, who wisely respect Godolphin horses ridden by Frankie Dettori in the world's richest race.

Bonnie Miss Stakes: Highest Class is bred for 1 1/8 miles (by Mineshaft) and is the best finisher in a speed-laden field. Backseat Rhythm should get up for second.

Florida Derby: Can the 3-year-old phenom Big Brown, the Horse of the Moment, live up to his sudden burst of hype and win from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream? Horses from post 8 and out are 0-for-37 there this meet when trying 9 furlongs. I'm taking a shot with George Steinbrenner's colt, Majestic Warrior, who unfortunately is stuck in post 10. However, he has some things to like, and his morning line is a very tempting 15-1. The son of A.P. Indy out of a stakes-winning Seeking the Gold mare has the best distance pedigree in the field, and his wide-trip seventh in the Louisiana Derby should move him forward. He made a strong move on the turn and briefly battled for the lead in the stretch before fading. He lost a ton of ground and ran as if he was short of condition, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott clearly didn't have him fully cranked up. He's turned in two strong workouts since and should be ready to give a much better effort. I'll play Majestic Warrior across the board and box him with Elysium Fields and Big Brown in exactas.

Curlin seeks place in history

No horse in the first 12 Dubai World Cups won from post 12, which is where Curlin got stuck for Saturday's 1 1/4-mile international battle at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. His morning-line odds are 3-5 and probably will be lower at post time, so not many bettors will be opposing him. I can't play him at that price, but doubting Curlin last year was depressing for skeptics.

The massive chestnut colt broke all the rules, winning the Preakness in only his fifth start after not racing as a 2-year-old and not making his debut until February. After coming within a head of taking the Belmont Stakes, he was a distant third in the Haskell before returning in triumph in the fall. Victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic led to a landslide vote for Horse of the Year. The $3.6 million winner's share in the World Cup would raise his earnings above $8.8 million, well within striking distance of Cigar's all-time record of $9,999,815.

He's training well in Dubai, where he's spent the past month and won a prep under wraps against a ridiculously overmatched field.

"He has so much power, so much ability," Robby Albarado said. "Riding him the last time, that's probably the most confident I've been on a horse in a long time. Not many horses like him. In Dubai, it felt like I was galloping him, and he was a second off the track record. And he's a good stick horse, too. When you're whipping him, he really excels. I feel like if I had hit him a few times, he might have won by 10 or 15 lengths. But that wasn't our goal, which was to get him around a new racetrack and get him ready for this weekend."

Rarely do I root for odds-on favorites, but I'll be pulling for Curlin on Saturday. The fact that such a superstar is in training at 4 and not at stud is a major highlight.

"I think Curlin means a lot to racing," Albarado said. "Everyone needs a star in racing, and if Curlin could continue his streak, he'll establish his fan base like no one's had in years."

John G. Dooley, one of a kind

He'll refer to the finish line as "the winning wire" or "the first line." Huh? A horse showing early speed comes out "with guns blazing" and "pace a-plenty." A front-runner is "dictating terms," and when a stalker saves ground, it's "magnetized to the rail" and "in a holding pattern." A jockey going to the whip is "drawing his sword." When the betting choice wins, "the favorite obliges." If a stretch runner has to weave through the field, it's "beginning a slalom run."

Where does John G. Dooley come up with this stuff? You certainly can't accuse him of copying anybody. No matter how you react to his racecalls, he won't ever paint the word picture by the numbers. Connecting the dots is not his game.

Dooley, the announcer at the Fair Grounds and Arlington, can be far too flamboyant, especially to Old School horseplayers, but is still one of the nation's top callers. His voice is strong, his descriptions accurate, he gives a feel for the whole race and spots a winning move before the horse makes the lead. His detractors say he gets in the way by being over the top, but a cruise through the horse-blogging universe reveals many Dooley admirers.

One called him "the nation's most underrated racecaller," and another questioned why Churchill Downs, which owns the Fair Grounds and Arlington, hasn't replaced the competent but less stylish Luke Kruytbosch with Dooley. One said Dooley "has passed Trevor Denman to become the best racecaller in America." Unlike many announcers who fill in the blanks every race as they drone through the field from front to back, Dooley extends himself energetically. One blogger called him "incredibly creative," and "Sundaysilence4ever" said, "I love John Dooley. He has a special way of making every race exciting no matter what the level, building a crescendo to the stretch and then to the finish." Sounds like love to me. Do racecallers have groupies?

Dooley will identify who's riding whom and say whether a jockey is biding his time with plenty of horse or urging with no response. The information he provides is rarely wrong, though often it's conveyed with too much enthusiasm. Dooley got on Steve Asmussen's nerves last month when he yelled "And Pyro is last!" at the top of the stretch before the trainer's Derby favorite won the Risen Star Stakes.

Occasionally Dooley bugs me, but mainly I like him. I'll watch a cheap Louisiana-bred claiming race just to see if he'll throw in one of his idiosyncratic phrases such as "Good ground, this" or "the daunting Fair Grounds stretch." He obviously has a passion for his job, and with some self-editing and a volume control, someday he might be as famous and esteemed as Denman and Tom Durkin. But please, John, drop the "winning wire" and "first line." Don't try quite so hard to be creative.

Introducing Big Brown

He's raced only twice and has brittle feet, which hasn't kept a major buzz from developing around a 3-year-old colt named Big Brown. "Talent like he has makes up for a lack of experience," his trainer, Rick Dutrow, said. "He's that good." On Saturday the son of Boundary will get a chance to prove that in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

After debuting with an 11 1/4-length runaway on the Saratoga turf, separate cracks in each front hoof sidelined Big Brown. All that Dutrow could do in January was walk him around the stable area, and it wasn't until March 5 that Big Brown reappeared at Gulfstream in a mile allowance that came off the turf. He turned a lot of heads that day in a 12 3/4-length romp that convinced HRTV's Jeff Siegel, a very savvy handicapper, to make him No. 1 on his Kentucky Derby list.

"When he turned for home at the quarter pole, it took my breath away," Dutrow said Tuesday. "He does things effortlessly, like the good ones do."

Two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux rode Big Brown three weeks ago, and Dutrow said the Cajun Hall of Famer was gushing after a workout Tuesday. "Kent told me, 'Man, I've got goose bumps. This is so exciting. He's got one of the longest strides of any horse I've ever been on.' "

Although Big Brown is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, moving into stakes company and coming back in only 24 days, Dutrow said he's not concerned. "He's never done any of these things," he said, "but I feel very confident going into the race. We feel extremely strong about his chances."

If not for Curlin's unprecedented rise last year from unraced unknown in late January to Breeders' Cup Classic winner nine months later, there would be much more skepticism about Big Brown. Robby Albarado, Curlin's rider, said he wouldn't dismiss the chances of any green colt with great potential.

"Curlin exceeded everyone's expectations last year by breaking his maiden in February and going on to win the Classic and be Horse of the Year," Albarado said Tuesday. "He proved that it could be done. It's rare, but in this 3-year-old crop, there's no real superstar right now outside of Pyro. So anything is possible with a lightly raced horse if he's good enough."

There never were durability issues with Curlin, so even if Big Brown can compete with the best of his generation, can he withstand the Triple Crown grind? Don't be surprised if he wins as the favorite Saturday, because he doesn't have much to beat. Yet how he comes out of the race, not where he finishes, will mean more in the long run.

So long, Rags to Riches

It's too bad that Rags to Riches will never run again, because she was one of the best 3-year-old fillies I've ever seen. A recurrence of a leg injury led to Monday's announcement that she was being retired to become a broodmare at Ashford Stud in Kentucky. She was only the third filly, and the first in 102 years, to win the Belmont Stakes, and to do it she had to outlast the eventual Horse of the Year, Curlin, in as exciting a stretch battle as you could imagine. Unfortunately, after that exhausting duel, she had little left, racing only once.

"It's a sad day for racing and all of her fans," her trainer, Todd Pletcher, said from the Palm Beach Downs training center in Florida. "She will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fillies ever to run."

Rags to Riches' Belmont was the ultimate exclamation point to a riveting Triple Crown that won't be matched for many years. Despite stumbling badly coming out of the gate and being wide most of the way, she kept coming. The chestnut amazon with the white face showed a marathoner's stamina and a warrior's heart as she refused to let the Preakness winner go by. In the final quarter-mile they went head to head in under 24 seconds, and never did the 1 1/2-mile "Test of the Champion" demand more. The stress might have contributed to the hairline fracture that Rags to Riches suffered three months later while finishing second to Lear's Princess in the Gazelle Handicap at Belmont Park.

"She has reinjured her right front pastern," Pletcher said Monday, "and because of the timing, the decision was made to retire her as opposed to trying to bring her back in the fall."

Rags to Riches ran only seven times, winning five, including the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies' Derby, and she might have given Street Sense a serious challenge the next day if she'd been pointed to the Derby instead. Now she joins him in retirement, and of the stars of the 2007 classics, only Curlin is still running. Sad to say, what would have been far more surprising is if she had rebounded from her injury and resumed her domination. These magnificent creatures aren't built to last. So again, the sad lesson: Enjoy the great horses while they're around, because they're rarely there for long.

Another double-digit stakes winner

For the third consecutive Saturday, your Cybertout handed out a 3-year-old stakes-winner who paid more than $10. This time it was Adriano, who returned $11.60 after dominating by 2 1/2 lengths under wraps in the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park. He topped a $46.80 exacta with Halo Najib, one of the two I suggested you box with Adriano.

There is no sweeter sound than tooting your own horn, and no more self-indulgent delight than quoting yourself. Ahem .. . here's what I wrote Friday about Adriano:

"Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado . . . He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best."

Ca-ching! Once again, I was a prophet who showed a profit. Hurray for me, part 3.

For this boasting, the racing gods may see fit to slap me down, but when you're hot, you might as well style a little bit. I hope you got down on Adriano, too. My only regret is that I didn't bet more on him, but I still made enough to buy plenty of Reese's peanut butter cups to celebrate Easter.

Yo, Adriano

Kentucky's winter/early spring answer to Aqueduct's inner track is Turfway Park, whose name has never fit. It has no grass course, so I always thought it should be called Dirtway Park. But not anymore, because for the past few years it's had an artificial surface, so perhaps the name should be Syntheticway Park or Polytrack Downs. I rarely play the races there, except for its two stakes-filled Saturdays, Kentucky Cup Day in September and Lane's End Stakes Day in late March.

On Saturday a dozen second-tier 3-year-olds will contest the Grade II, $500,000 Lane's End Stakes, which over the years has produced quite a few horses that hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, among them the 1991 Preakness-Belmont winner, Hansel, and last year's Derby runner-up, Hard Spun. After taking the Lane's End, Hard Spun didn't run again until Derby Day, when he set a blazing pace and was caught by Street Sense in the final furlong. Is there another Hard Spun in this Lane's End? Most likely, there isn't, but it's still an intriguing handicapping puzzle and you get paid off if you solve it. I hit double-digit winners in stakes the past two weeks -- Visionaire ($11) in the Gotham and Sierra Sunset ($10.40) in the Rebel -- so let's see if I can make it three in a row.

Adriano is 6-1 on the morning line, and I'll go with him to win and place and key him in exacta boxes with Raceway Rhapsody and Halo Najib, the two who should draw most of the money. Adriano (by A.P. Indy) has the pedigree to get 1 1/8 miles, which many of his rivals do not. Although he's run mainly on grass in his six races, he had excuses in his two non-turf attempts. He was stuck wide behind a crawling pace last October in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity, finishing fourth, beaten about 6 lengths, behind Wicked Style, who stole the race under Robby Albarado. Last time out in the Florida Derby Adriano was hung wide in post 12 and had to be steadied entering the first turn, which pretty much eliminated him.

Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He's been working well in Florida over the deep surface at Palm Meadows for shrewd trainer Graham Motion. With front-runners Duke Of De Buque and Chitoz inside Adriano (post 5), he should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado. If this experiment doesn't work, it probably will be back to the grass for Adriano. He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best.

Rating the immortals

For the past three years I've had the privilege of voting for people and horses that are candidates for induction into the Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs. Here are the candidates for this year, followed by how I voted and why. You're allowed to vote for only one in each category.

Male horse: Tiznow, Best Pal, Manila
Female horse: Inside Information, Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty
Jockey: Edgar Prado, Randy Romero, Alex Solis
Trainer: Carl Nafzger, Robert Wheeler

MALE HORSE:
Tiznow was an easy pick, because how can you leave out the only horse to win back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics? Best Pal (17 stakes wins, earnings of more than $5.6 million) will get in another year, but not against Tiznow. Manila, a great grass horse in the mid- to late 1980s, ran only 18 times but won five Grade I stakes, including the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Arlington Million. He's third-best in this trio.

FEMALE HORSE:
Inside Information was another slam dunk, having never finished worse than third (14-2-1) in her career, and winning the 1995 Breeders' Cup Distaff in the Belmont mud by 13 1/2 lengths was a performance for the ages. Open Mind, the 1988 2-year-old filly champion, lost her last five races. Silverbulletday also slumped late in her career, losing six of her last seven. Belmont/Saratoga specialist Sky Beauty was 15-for-21 but finished up the track (5th, 9th) in the 1993 and '94 Distaffs.

JOCKEY:
Barbaro's runaway Derby is among Edgar Prado's more than 6,000 wins, and I'm sure he'll win this election in a landslide. I didn't vote for Prado, though he has great credentials, because I think Randy Romero was one of the most courageous and gifted riders I ever saw, as well as one of the unluckiest. Romero broke almost every bone in his body in a 27-year career that had tremendous highs and lows. He won 4,294 races and was the regular jockey for all-time greats Personal Ensign and the ill-fated Go for Wand, and he rode them after coming back from a sweat-box fire in which he nearly died from burns. He recently had a kidney removed and will have to continue dialysis for the rest of his life. Racing should salute him with a place in the Hall of Fame. As for Solis, I've always thought of him as a compiler of stats, a very good but not a great jockey. He might get in down the road, but not this time.

TRAINER:
Carl Nafzger, the former bull rider from Texas, is a quality over quantity guy. He'll never lead the nation in wins with his small stable, but give him an excellent horse and he'll never mess it up. Taking his second Derby last year with Street Sense, 17 years after he got the roses with Unbridled, earned him a plaque on Union Avenue up at the Spa.

Wheeler, who died at 72 in 1992, was an old-timer from Nebraska who probably never will make the Hall because he did most of his best work before 1980. Some of his best-known horses were Track Robbery, The Axe II and A Gleam.

Oh well

Got through the first leg of Aqueduct's Pick 6 with even-money favorite Explosive Count, but the good vibes didn't last long on a soggy Wednesday. When E. Judith finished third to 25-1 winner Credit At Tiffany's in a three-horse photo in the next race, the fantasy ended for my suggested ticket. Scratches had pared it down to $192, but I didn't bet real money because my top pick in the last leg got scratched. I could not in good conscience risk $192 in the hopes that I could guess right in the puzzling finale, a New York-bred mish-mosh of first-time starters and formless creatures.

Hit with another even-money horse, Gullible Gal, in the sixth and appeared to have the seventh locked up with front-running Untopable, but he got caught in the last jump by 7-1 shot Phil's Blue Way. I had seriously considered using Phil's Blue Way, who had won three times on off tracks, but I left him out after going back and forth for a few minutes. So it's just as well that E. Judith got beat, because I would have second-guessed myself mercilessly for not having the guts/smarts to stick with a $17.60 winner that would have kept me alive for the big money. I did play the $66 Phil's Blue Way-Untopable exacta, though, so I ended up a real winner even if I was a virtual loser, which is infinitely better than vice-versa.

Pick 6 fever

There's a Pick 6 carryover of more than $236,000 Wednesday at Aqueduct, and you're wondering whether you should chase it. I never play the Pick 6, and for some strange reason even I'm interested. Must be the coming of spring, when aging cynics' thoughts turn to seeking life-changing scores.

Complicating matters (or does it simplify them?) is the virtual certainty of a wet track, because rain was forecast to begin in late afternoon Tuesday and continue for at least 24 hours. At noon Tuesday, the Weather Channel estimated a 70- to 80-percent chance of rain for New York Wednesday afternoon. So let's assume the track will be sloppy and speed-favoring and try to find some mudders.

The pool should approach $500,000 by the time the fourth race kicks off the sequence, so even a chalky string of winners would be most rewarding. I went through the past performances for about 90 minutes in the wee hours Tuesday, when my "include any reasonable contender" ticket came to $5,400, a ridiculous outlay even for a mind bet. Only the biggest syndicates would go that deep, and certainly not with only one ticket. I pared it down quite a bit Tuesday afternoon, and undoubtedly weather-related scratches will make it cheaper to play.

Here are my best guesses. If I help you change your life, a 10-percent tip would be appreciated. I'd settle for $20.

4th race: Explosive Count, Raceland/Kong's Revenge entry, My Apology (3)
5th race: Charming Mandate, E. Judith (2)
6th race: Gullible Gal, Ambidaxtrous (2)
7th race: Untopable, Mithaal (2)
8th race: Blew Me Away, City By Sea, Violent Behavior (3)
9th race: Evaluator, Shirley Law, Citifiesta (3)

Let's see, what would that cost: $2x3x2x2x2x3x3= $432. Not cheap, but scratches will knock out some plays, and if you could find a partner or two, failure wouldn't be too expensive and you could share the pain. And if you won, ah, that would be glorious. My pal Craig the Red Sox fan is flying to Vegas Wednesday morning to play the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. He's concerned he might not be able to get to his phone account before the Pick 6 starts. Maybe I can help him there. Excuse me while I give him a call and see if he wants to go in with me.