Four hours after Curlin emphatically reaffirmed his position as king of the four-legged world, Big Brown supplanted Pyro as the Kentucky Derby favorite. Curlin's 7 3/4-length runaway in the $6-million Dubai World Cup was expected; a loss, or even a tight win, would have been surprising. Yet even though Big Brown was heavily favored, his five-length romp in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park sent reverberations throughout Derby Nation. Horses making their third career start aren't supposed to win a Grade I race by five lengths from way out in post 12 in a very fast 1:48.16.
"He's a major talent, possibly the best horse I've ever ridden," two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux said. "I'd have to say he's my Derby horse."
Big Brown capped a career day for trainer Rick Dutrow, who watched on TV from Florida as two of his horses won nine-figure stakes in Dubai. Sprinter Benny the Bull won the $2-million Golden Shaheen after Diamond Stripes took the $1-million Godolphin Mile. Big Brown's $600,000 payday boosted Dutrow's 10-percent winner's shares for the day to $240,000, but all he could do was rave about his 3-year-old star.
"I loved it," Dutrow said. "I knew the horses in this race couldn't catch him."
The undefeated Big Brown's career margin is 29 lengths, yet he'll have many doubters entering the May 3 Derby. He's not expected to run again until the first Saturday in May, and his lack of experience offers much grist for skeptics. Of the 17 horses to make their fourth lifetime start in the Derby, only one (the filly Regret, 1915) won. Even Curlin, with all of his talent, could manage only a distant third last year before taking the Preakness in his fifth start.
Big Brown's pacesetting style is a concern, too. Will he be able to outrun the cheap speed that always seems to show up in the Run for the Roses and not burn out? Or will he disappoint as another need-to-lead type, the 2007 2-year-old champion War Pass, did recently in the Tampa Bay Derby? Let the debates begin in Blogger Universe.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Saturday stakes picks
There's an endless flow of stakes on Saturday, starting at 9:30 a.m. with TVG's coverage of the Dubai World Cup card and continuing into late afternoon with the Florida Derby program at Gulfstream. Let's see if I can stay hot after touting three winners of Derby preps that all paid more than $10 the past three weeks.
Dubai Golden Shaheen: If you can get the 5-1 morning line on Benny the Bull, you'll be lucky. There's plenty of pace in here, and Benny can track the speed or come from midpack. Diabolical, the likely favorite under Frankie Dettori, is the main danger, and Idiot Proof also belongs in exactas.
Dubai Sheema Classic: Viva Pataca (2-for-2 at 1 1/2 miles on turf) looks like a deserving favorite, but at 2-1 or so he won't be very inviting. There's a buzz in Europe about last year's Arc runner-up, Youmzain, but he's a teaser who's lost five in a row and may need softer ground. Last year's Man o' War winner, Dr. Dino, also is in with a chance. Other exacta candidates that should be double-digit odds are Quijano, the filly West Wind and Oracle West. It looks as if 9-year-old Better Talk Now has lost a few steps.
Dubai World Cup: Concede the race to Curlin and play him in a cold exacta with improving 4-year-old Jalil, who's 2-for-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. As of early Friday, he was the 6-1 second choice among the English bookmakers, who wisely respect Godolphin horses ridden by Frankie Dettori in the world's richest race.
Bonnie Miss Stakes: Highest Class is bred for 1 1/8 miles (by Mineshaft) and is the best finisher in a speed-laden field. Backseat Rhythm should get up for second.
Florida Derby: Can the 3-year-old phenom Big Brown, the Horse of the Moment, live up to his sudden burst of hype and win from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream? Horses from post 8 and out are 0-for-37 there this meet when trying 9 furlongs. I'm taking a shot with George Steinbrenner's colt, Majestic Warrior, who unfortunately is stuck in post 10. However, he has some things to like, and his morning line is a very tempting 15-1. The son of A.P. Indy out of a stakes-winning Seeking the Gold mare has the best distance pedigree in the field, and his wide-trip seventh in the Louisiana Derby should move him forward. He made a strong move on the turn and briefly battled for the lead in the stretch before fading. He lost a ton of ground and ran as if he was short of condition, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott clearly didn't have him fully cranked up. He's turned in two strong workouts since and should be ready to give a much better effort. I'll play Majestic Warrior across the board and box him with Elysium Fields and Big Brown in exactas.
Dubai Golden Shaheen: If you can get the 5-1 morning line on Benny the Bull, you'll be lucky. There's plenty of pace in here, and Benny can track the speed or come from midpack. Diabolical, the likely favorite under Frankie Dettori, is the main danger, and Idiot Proof also belongs in exactas.
Dubai Sheema Classic: Viva Pataca (2-for-2 at 1 1/2 miles on turf) looks like a deserving favorite, but at 2-1 or so he won't be very inviting. There's a buzz in Europe about last year's Arc runner-up, Youmzain, but he's a teaser who's lost five in a row and may need softer ground. Last year's Man o' War winner, Dr. Dino, also is in with a chance. Other exacta candidates that should be double-digit odds are Quijano, the filly West Wind and Oracle West. It looks as if 9-year-old Better Talk Now has lost a few steps.
Dubai World Cup: Concede the race to Curlin and play him in a cold exacta with improving 4-year-old Jalil, who's 2-for-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. As of early Friday, he was the 6-1 second choice among the English bookmakers, who wisely respect Godolphin horses ridden by Frankie Dettori in the world's richest race.
Bonnie Miss Stakes: Highest Class is bred for 1 1/8 miles (by Mineshaft) and is the best finisher in a speed-laden field. Backseat Rhythm should get up for second.
Florida Derby: Can the 3-year-old phenom Big Brown, the Horse of the Moment, live up to his sudden burst of hype and win from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream? Horses from post 8 and out are 0-for-37 there this meet when trying 9 furlongs. I'm taking a shot with George Steinbrenner's colt, Majestic Warrior, who unfortunately is stuck in post 10. However, he has some things to like, and his morning line is a very tempting 15-1. The son of A.P. Indy out of a stakes-winning Seeking the Gold mare has the best distance pedigree in the field, and his wide-trip seventh in the Louisiana Derby should move him forward. He made a strong move on the turn and briefly battled for the lead in the stretch before fading. He lost a ton of ground and ran as if he was short of condition, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott clearly didn't have him fully cranked up. He's turned in two strong workouts since and should be ready to give a much better effort. I'll play Majestic Warrior across the board and box him with Elysium Fields and Big Brown in exactas.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Curlin seeks place in history
No horse in the first 12 Dubai World Cups won from post 12, which is where Curlin got stuck for Saturday's 1 1/4-mile international battle at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. His morning-line odds are 3-5 and probably will be lower at post time, so not many bettors will be opposing him. I can't play him at that price, but doubting Curlin last year was depressing for skeptics.
The massive chestnut colt broke all the rules, winning the Preakness in only his fifth start after not racing as a 2-year-old and not making his debut until February. After coming within a head of taking the Belmont Stakes, he was a distant third in the Haskell before returning in triumph in the fall. Victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic led to a landslide vote for Horse of the Year. The $3.6 million winner's share in the World Cup would raise his earnings above $8.8 million, well within striking distance of Cigar's all-time record of $9,999,815.
He's training well in Dubai, where he's spent the past month and won a prep under wraps against a ridiculously overmatched field.
"He has so much power, so much ability," Robby Albarado said. "Riding him the last time, that's probably the most confident I've been on a horse in a long time. Not many horses like him. In Dubai, it felt like I was galloping him, and he was a second off the track record. And he's a good stick horse, too. When you're whipping him, he really excels. I feel like if I had hit him a few times, he might have won by 10 or 15 lengths. But that wasn't our goal, which was to get him around a new racetrack and get him ready for this weekend."
Rarely do I root for odds-on favorites, but I'll be pulling for Curlin on Saturday. The fact that such a superstar is in training at 4 and not at stud is a major highlight.
"I think Curlin means a lot to racing," Albarado said. "Everyone needs a star in racing, and if Curlin could continue his streak, he'll establish his fan base like no one's had in years."
The massive chestnut colt broke all the rules, winning the Preakness in only his fifth start after not racing as a 2-year-old and not making his debut until February. After coming within a head of taking the Belmont Stakes, he was a distant third in the Haskell before returning in triumph in the fall. Victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic led to a landslide vote for Horse of the Year. The $3.6 million winner's share in the World Cup would raise his earnings above $8.8 million, well within striking distance of Cigar's all-time record of $9,999,815.
He's training well in Dubai, where he's spent the past month and won a prep under wraps against a ridiculously overmatched field.
"He has so much power, so much ability," Robby Albarado said. "Riding him the last time, that's probably the most confident I've been on a horse in a long time. Not many horses like him. In Dubai, it felt like I was galloping him, and he was a second off the track record. And he's a good stick horse, too. When you're whipping him, he really excels. I feel like if I had hit him a few times, he might have won by 10 or 15 lengths. But that wasn't our goal, which was to get him around a new racetrack and get him ready for this weekend."
Rarely do I root for odds-on favorites, but I'll be pulling for Curlin on Saturday. The fact that such a superstar is in training at 4 and not at stud is a major highlight.
"I think Curlin means a lot to racing," Albarado said. "Everyone needs a star in racing, and if Curlin could continue his streak, he'll establish his fan base like no one's had in years."
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
John G. Dooley, one of a kind
He'll refer to the finish line as "the winning wire" or "the first line." Huh? A horse showing early speed comes out "with guns blazing" and "pace a-plenty." A front-runner is "dictating terms," and when a stalker saves ground, it's "magnetized to the rail" and "in a holding pattern." A jockey going to the whip is "drawing his sword." When the betting choice wins, "the favorite obliges." If a stretch runner has to weave through the field, it's "beginning a slalom run."
Where does John G. Dooley come up with this stuff? You certainly can't accuse him of copying anybody. No matter how you react to his racecalls, he won't ever paint the word picture by the numbers. Connecting the dots is not his game.
Dooley, the announcer at the Fair Grounds and Arlington, can be far too flamboyant, especially to Old School horseplayers, but is still one of the nation's top callers. His voice is strong, his descriptions accurate, he gives a feel for the whole race and spots a winning move before the horse makes the lead. His detractors say he gets in the way by being over the top, but a cruise through the horse-blogging universe reveals many Dooley admirers.
One called him "the nation's most underrated racecaller," and another questioned why Churchill Downs, which owns the Fair Grounds and Arlington, hasn't replaced the competent but less stylish Luke Kruytbosch with Dooley. One said Dooley "has passed Trevor Denman to become the best racecaller in America." Unlike many announcers who fill in the blanks every race as they drone through the field from front to back, Dooley extends himself energetically. One blogger called him "incredibly creative," and "Sundaysilence4ever" said, "I love John Dooley. He has a special way of making every race exciting no matter what the level, building a crescendo to the stretch and then to the finish." Sounds like love to me. Do racecallers have groupies?
Dooley will identify who's riding whom and say whether a jockey is biding his time with plenty of horse or urging with no response. The information he provides is rarely wrong, though often it's conveyed with too much enthusiasm. Dooley got on Steve Asmussen's nerves last month when he yelled "And Pyro is last!" at the top of the stretch before the trainer's Derby favorite won the Risen Star Stakes.
Occasionally Dooley bugs me, but mainly I like him. I'll watch a cheap Louisiana-bred claiming race just to see if he'll throw in one of his idiosyncratic phrases such as "Good ground, this" or "the daunting Fair Grounds stretch." He obviously has a passion for his job, and with some self-editing and a volume control, someday he might be as famous and esteemed as Denman and Tom Durkin. But please, John, drop the "winning wire" and "first line." Don't try quite so hard to be creative.
Where does John G. Dooley come up with this stuff? You certainly can't accuse him of copying anybody. No matter how you react to his racecalls, he won't ever paint the word picture by the numbers. Connecting the dots is not his game.
Dooley, the announcer at the Fair Grounds and Arlington, can be far too flamboyant, especially to Old School horseplayers, but is still one of the nation's top callers. His voice is strong, his descriptions accurate, he gives a feel for the whole race and spots a winning move before the horse makes the lead. His detractors say he gets in the way by being over the top, but a cruise through the horse-blogging universe reveals many Dooley admirers.
One called him "the nation's most underrated racecaller," and another questioned why Churchill Downs, which owns the Fair Grounds and Arlington, hasn't replaced the competent but less stylish Luke Kruytbosch with Dooley. One said Dooley "has passed Trevor Denman to become the best racecaller in America." Unlike many announcers who fill in the blanks every race as they drone through the field from front to back, Dooley extends himself energetically. One blogger called him "incredibly creative," and "Sundaysilence4ever" said, "I love John Dooley. He has a special way of making every race exciting no matter what the level, building a crescendo to the stretch and then to the finish." Sounds like love to me. Do racecallers have groupies?
Dooley will identify who's riding whom and say whether a jockey is biding his time with plenty of horse or urging with no response. The information he provides is rarely wrong, though often it's conveyed with too much enthusiasm. Dooley got on Steve Asmussen's nerves last month when he yelled "And Pyro is last!" at the top of the stretch before the trainer's Derby favorite won the Risen Star Stakes.
Occasionally Dooley bugs me, but mainly I like him. I'll watch a cheap Louisiana-bred claiming race just to see if he'll throw in one of his idiosyncratic phrases such as "Good ground, this" or "the daunting Fair Grounds stretch." He obviously has a passion for his job, and with some self-editing and a volume control, someday he might be as famous and esteemed as Denman and Tom Durkin. But please, John, drop the "winning wire" and "first line." Don't try quite so hard to be creative.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Introducing Big Brown
He's raced only twice and has brittle feet, which hasn't kept a major buzz from developing around a 3-year-old colt named Big Brown. "Talent like he has makes up for a lack of experience," his trainer, Rick Dutrow, said. "He's that good." On Saturday the son of Boundary will get a chance to prove that in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
After debuting with an 11 1/4-length runaway on the Saratoga turf, separate cracks in each front hoof sidelined Big Brown. All that Dutrow could do in January was walk him around the stable area, and it wasn't until March 5 that Big Brown reappeared at Gulfstream in a mile allowance that came off the turf. He turned a lot of heads that day in a 12 3/4-length romp that convinced HRTV's Jeff Siegel, a very savvy handicapper, to make him No. 1 on his Kentucky Derby list.
"When he turned for home at the quarter pole, it took my breath away," Dutrow said Tuesday. "He does things effortlessly, like the good ones do."
Two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux rode Big Brown three weeks ago, and Dutrow said the Cajun Hall of Famer was gushing after a workout Tuesday. "Kent told me, 'Man, I've got goose bumps. This is so exciting. He's got one of the longest strides of any horse I've ever been on.' "
Although Big Brown is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, moving into stakes company and coming back in only 24 days, Dutrow said he's not concerned. "He's never done any of these things," he said, "but I feel very confident going into the race. We feel extremely strong about his chances."
If not for Curlin's unprecedented rise last year from unraced unknown in late January to Breeders' Cup Classic winner nine months later, there would be much more skepticism about Big Brown. Robby Albarado, Curlin's rider, said he wouldn't dismiss the chances of any green colt with great potential.
"Curlin exceeded everyone's expectations last year by breaking his maiden in February and going on to win the Classic and be Horse of the Year," Albarado said Tuesday. "He proved that it could be done. It's rare, but in this 3-year-old crop, there's no real superstar right now outside of Pyro. So anything is possible with a lightly raced horse if he's good enough."
There never were durability issues with Curlin, so even if Big Brown can compete with the best of his generation, can he withstand the Triple Crown grind? Don't be surprised if he wins as the favorite Saturday, because he doesn't have much to beat. Yet how he comes out of the race, not where he finishes, will mean more in the long run.
After debuting with an 11 1/4-length runaway on the Saratoga turf, separate cracks in each front hoof sidelined Big Brown. All that Dutrow could do in January was walk him around the stable area, and it wasn't until March 5 that Big Brown reappeared at Gulfstream in a mile allowance that came off the turf. He turned a lot of heads that day in a 12 3/4-length romp that convinced HRTV's Jeff Siegel, a very savvy handicapper, to make him No. 1 on his Kentucky Derby list.
"When he turned for home at the quarter pole, it took my breath away," Dutrow said Tuesday. "He does things effortlessly, like the good ones do."
Two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux rode Big Brown three weeks ago, and Dutrow said the Cajun Hall of Famer was gushing after a workout Tuesday. "Kent told me, 'Man, I've got goose bumps. This is so exciting. He's got one of the longest strides of any horse I've ever been on.' "
Although Big Brown is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, moving into stakes company and coming back in only 24 days, Dutrow said he's not concerned. "He's never done any of these things," he said, "but I feel very confident going into the race. We feel extremely strong about his chances."
If not for Curlin's unprecedented rise last year from unraced unknown in late January to Breeders' Cup Classic winner nine months later, there would be much more skepticism about Big Brown. Robby Albarado, Curlin's rider, said he wouldn't dismiss the chances of any green colt with great potential.
"Curlin exceeded everyone's expectations last year by breaking his maiden in February and going on to win the Classic and be Horse of the Year," Albarado said Tuesday. "He proved that it could be done. It's rare, but in this 3-year-old crop, there's no real superstar right now outside of Pyro. So anything is possible with a lightly raced horse if he's good enough."
There never were durability issues with Curlin, so even if Big Brown can compete with the best of his generation, can he withstand the Triple Crown grind? Don't be surprised if he wins as the favorite Saturday, because he doesn't have much to beat. Yet how he comes out of the race, not where he finishes, will mean more in the long run.
Monday, March 24, 2008
So long, Rags to Riches
It's too bad that Rags to Riches will never run again, because she was one of the best 3-year-old fillies I've ever seen. A recurrence of a leg injury led to Monday's announcement that she was being retired to become a broodmare at Ashford Stud in Kentucky. She was only the third filly, and the first in 102 years, to win the Belmont Stakes, and to do it she had to outlast the eventual Horse of the Year, Curlin, in as exciting a stretch battle as you could imagine. Unfortunately, after that exhausting duel, she had little left, racing only once.
"It's a sad day for racing and all of her fans," her trainer, Todd Pletcher, said from the Palm Beach Downs training center in Florida. "She will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fillies ever to run."
Rags to Riches' Belmont was the ultimate exclamation point to a riveting Triple Crown that won't be matched for many years. Despite stumbling badly coming out of the gate and being wide most of the way, she kept coming. The chestnut amazon with the white face showed a marathoner's stamina and a warrior's heart as she refused to let the Preakness winner go by. In the final quarter-mile they went head to head in under 24 seconds, and never did the 1 1/2-mile "Test of the Champion" demand more. The stress might have contributed to the hairline fracture that Rags to Riches suffered three months later while finishing second to Lear's Princess in the Gazelle Handicap at Belmont Park.
"She has reinjured her right front pastern," Pletcher said Monday, "and because of the timing, the decision was made to retire her as opposed to trying to bring her back in the fall."
Rags to Riches ran only seven times, winning five, including the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies' Derby, and she might have given Street Sense a serious challenge the next day if she'd been pointed to the Derby instead. Now she joins him in retirement, and of the stars of the 2007 classics, only Curlin is still running. Sad to say, what would have been far more surprising is if she had rebounded from her injury and resumed her domination. These magnificent creatures aren't built to last. So again, the sad lesson: Enjoy the great horses while they're around, because they're rarely there for long.
"It's a sad day for racing and all of her fans," her trainer, Todd Pletcher, said from the Palm Beach Downs training center in Florida. "She will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fillies ever to run."
Rags to Riches' Belmont was the ultimate exclamation point to a riveting Triple Crown that won't be matched for many years. Despite stumbling badly coming out of the gate and being wide most of the way, she kept coming. The chestnut amazon with the white face showed a marathoner's stamina and a warrior's heart as she refused to let the Preakness winner go by. In the final quarter-mile they went head to head in under 24 seconds, and never did the 1 1/2-mile "Test of the Champion" demand more. The stress might have contributed to the hairline fracture that Rags to Riches suffered three months later while finishing second to Lear's Princess in the Gazelle Handicap at Belmont Park.
"She has reinjured her right front pastern," Pletcher said Monday, "and because of the timing, the decision was made to retire her as opposed to trying to bring her back in the fall."
Rags to Riches ran only seven times, winning five, including the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies' Derby, and she might have given Street Sense a serious challenge the next day if she'd been pointed to the Derby instead. Now she joins him in retirement, and of the stars of the 2007 classics, only Curlin is still running. Sad to say, what would have been far more surprising is if she had rebounded from her injury and resumed her domination. These magnificent creatures aren't built to last. So again, the sad lesson: Enjoy the great horses while they're around, because they're rarely there for long.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Another double-digit stakes winner
For the third consecutive Saturday, your Cybertout handed out a 3-year-old stakes-winner who paid more than $10. This time it was Adriano, who returned $11.60 after dominating by 2 1/2 lengths under wraps in the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park. He topped a $46.80 exacta with Halo Najib, one of the two I suggested you box with Adriano.
There is no sweeter sound than tooting your own horn, and no more self-indulgent delight than quoting yourself. Ahem .. . here's what I wrote Friday about Adriano:
"Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado . . . He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best."
Ca-ching! Once again, I was a prophet who showed a profit. Hurray for me, part 3.
For this boasting, the racing gods may see fit to slap me down, but when you're hot, you might as well style a little bit. I hope you got down on Adriano, too. My only regret is that I didn't bet more on him, but I still made enough to buy plenty of Reese's peanut butter cups to celebrate Easter.
There is no sweeter sound than tooting your own horn, and no more self-indulgent delight than quoting yourself. Ahem .. . here's what I wrote Friday about Adriano:
"Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado . . . He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best."
Ca-ching! Once again, I was a prophet who showed a profit. Hurray for me, part 3.
For this boasting, the racing gods may see fit to slap me down, but when you're hot, you might as well style a little bit. I hope you got down on Adriano, too. My only regret is that I didn't bet more on him, but I still made enough to buy plenty of Reese's peanut butter cups to celebrate Easter.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Yo, Adriano
Kentucky's winter/early spring answer to Aqueduct's inner track is Turfway Park, whose name has never fit. It has no grass course, so I always thought it should be called Dirtway Park. But not anymore, because for the past few years it's had an artificial surface, so perhaps the name should be Syntheticway Park or Polytrack Downs. I rarely play the races there, except for its two stakes-filled Saturdays, Kentucky Cup Day in September and Lane's End Stakes Day in late March.
On Saturday a dozen second-tier 3-year-olds will contest the Grade II, $500,000 Lane's End Stakes, which over the years has produced quite a few horses that hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, among them the 1991 Preakness-Belmont winner, Hansel, and last year's Derby runner-up, Hard Spun. After taking the Lane's End, Hard Spun didn't run again until Derby Day, when he set a blazing pace and was caught by Street Sense in the final furlong. Is there another Hard Spun in this Lane's End? Most likely, there isn't, but it's still an intriguing handicapping puzzle and you get paid off if you solve it. I hit double-digit winners in stakes the past two weeks -- Visionaire ($11) in the Gotham and Sierra Sunset ($10.40) in the Rebel -- so let's see if I can make it three in a row.
Adriano is 6-1 on the morning line, and I'll go with him to win and place and key him in exacta boxes with Raceway Rhapsody and Halo Najib, the two who should draw most of the money. Adriano (by A.P. Indy) has the pedigree to get 1 1/8 miles, which many of his rivals do not. Although he's run mainly on grass in his six races, he had excuses in his two non-turf attempts. He was stuck wide behind a crawling pace last October in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity, finishing fourth, beaten about 6 lengths, behind Wicked Style, who stole the race under Robby Albarado. Last time out in the Florida Derby Adriano was hung wide in post 12 and had to be steadied entering the first turn, which pretty much eliminated him.
Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He's been working well in Florida over the deep surface at Palm Meadows for shrewd trainer Graham Motion. With front-runners Duke Of De Buque and Chitoz inside Adriano (post 5), he should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado. If this experiment doesn't work, it probably will be back to the grass for Adriano. He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best.
On Saturday a dozen second-tier 3-year-olds will contest the Grade II, $500,000 Lane's End Stakes, which over the years has produced quite a few horses that hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, among them the 1991 Preakness-Belmont winner, Hansel, and last year's Derby runner-up, Hard Spun. After taking the Lane's End, Hard Spun didn't run again until Derby Day, when he set a blazing pace and was caught by Street Sense in the final furlong. Is there another Hard Spun in this Lane's End? Most likely, there isn't, but it's still an intriguing handicapping puzzle and you get paid off if you solve it. I hit double-digit winners in stakes the past two weeks -- Visionaire ($11) in the Gotham and Sierra Sunset ($10.40) in the Rebel -- so let's see if I can make it three in a row.
Adriano is 6-1 on the morning line, and I'll go with him to win and place and key him in exacta boxes with Raceway Rhapsody and Halo Najib, the two who should draw most of the money. Adriano (by A.P. Indy) has the pedigree to get 1 1/8 miles, which many of his rivals do not. Although he's run mainly on grass in his six races, he had excuses in his two non-turf attempts. He was stuck wide behind a crawling pace last October in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity, finishing fourth, beaten about 6 lengths, behind Wicked Style, who stole the race under Robby Albarado. Last time out in the Florida Derby Adriano was hung wide in post 12 and had to be steadied entering the first turn, which pretty much eliminated him.
Turf specialists usually handle synthetic surfaces, and although I know I'm making a risky leap of faith, I think Adriano has a lot of upside, and the price will be right. He's been working well in Florida over the deep surface at Palm Meadows for shrewd trainer Graham Motion. With front-runners Duke Of De Buque and Chitoz inside Adriano (post 5), he should be able to sit behind a fast pace while saving ground with Edgar Prado. If this experiment doesn't work, it probably will be back to the grass for Adriano. He doesn't have a lot to beat here, though, and I think he could be sitting on a career best.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Rating the immortals
For the past three years I've had the privilege of voting for people and horses that are candidates for induction into the Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs. Here are the candidates for this year, followed by how I voted and why. You're allowed to vote for only one in each category.
Male horse: Tiznow, Best Pal, Manila
Female horse: Inside Information, Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty
Jockey: Edgar Prado, Randy Romero, Alex Solis
Trainer: Carl Nafzger, Robert Wheeler
MALE HORSE:
Tiznow was an easy pick, because how can you leave out the only horse to win back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics? Best Pal (17 stakes wins, earnings of more than $5.6 million) will get in another year, but not against Tiznow. Manila, a great grass horse in the mid- to late 1980s, ran only 18 times but won five Grade I stakes, including the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Arlington Million. He's third-best in this trio.
FEMALE HORSE:
Inside Information was another slam dunk, having never finished worse than third (14-2-1) in her career, and winning the 1995 Breeders' Cup Distaff in the Belmont mud by 13 1/2 lengths was a performance for the ages. Open Mind, the 1988 2-year-old filly champion, lost her last five races. Silverbulletday also slumped late in her career, losing six of her last seven. Belmont/Saratoga specialist Sky Beauty was 15-for-21 but finished up the track (5th, 9th) in the 1993 and '94 Distaffs.
JOCKEY:
Barbaro's runaway Derby is among Edgar Prado's more than 6,000 wins, and I'm sure he'll win this election in a landslide. I didn't vote for Prado, though he has great credentials, because I think Randy Romero was one of the most courageous and gifted riders I ever saw, as well as one of the unluckiest. Romero broke almost every bone in his body in a 27-year career that had tremendous highs and lows. He won 4,294 races and was the regular jockey for all-time greats Personal Ensign and the ill-fated Go for Wand, and he rode them after coming back from a sweat-box fire in which he nearly died from burns. He recently had a kidney removed and will have to continue dialysis for the rest of his life. Racing should salute him with a place in the Hall of Fame. As for Solis, I've always thought of him as a compiler of stats, a very good but not a great jockey. He might get in down the road, but not this time.
TRAINER:
Carl Nafzger, the former bull rider from Texas, is a quality over quantity guy. He'll never lead the nation in wins with his small stable, but give him an excellent horse and he'll never mess it up. Taking his second Derby last year with Street Sense, 17 years after he got the roses with Unbridled, earned him a plaque on Union Avenue up at the Spa.
Wheeler, who died at 72 in 1992, was an old-timer from Nebraska who probably never will make the Hall because he did most of his best work before 1980. Some of his best-known horses were Track Robbery, The Axe II and A Gleam.
Male horse: Tiznow, Best Pal, Manila
Female horse: Inside Information, Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty
Jockey: Edgar Prado, Randy Romero, Alex Solis
Trainer: Carl Nafzger, Robert Wheeler
MALE HORSE:
Tiznow was an easy pick, because how can you leave out the only horse to win back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics? Best Pal (17 stakes wins, earnings of more than $5.6 million) will get in another year, but not against Tiznow. Manila, a great grass horse in the mid- to late 1980s, ran only 18 times but won five Grade I stakes, including the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Arlington Million. He's third-best in this trio.
FEMALE HORSE:
Inside Information was another slam dunk, having never finished worse than third (14-2-1) in her career, and winning the 1995 Breeders' Cup Distaff in the Belmont mud by 13 1/2 lengths was a performance for the ages. Open Mind, the 1988 2-year-old filly champion, lost her last five races. Silverbulletday also slumped late in her career, losing six of her last seven. Belmont/Saratoga specialist Sky Beauty was 15-for-21 but finished up the track (5th, 9th) in the 1993 and '94 Distaffs.
JOCKEY:
Barbaro's runaway Derby is among Edgar Prado's more than 6,000 wins, and I'm sure he'll win this election in a landslide. I didn't vote for Prado, though he has great credentials, because I think Randy Romero was one of the most courageous and gifted riders I ever saw, as well as one of the unluckiest. Romero broke almost every bone in his body in a 27-year career that had tremendous highs and lows. He won 4,294 races and was the regular jockey for all-time greats Personal Ensign and the ill-fated Go for Wand, and he rode them after coming back from a sweat-box fire in which he nearly died from burns. He recently had a kidney removed and will have to continue dialysis for the rest of his life. Racing should salute him with a place in the Hall of Fame. As for Solis, I've always thought of him as a compiler of stats, a very good but not a great jockey. He might get in down the road, but not this time.
TRAINER:
Carl Nafzger, the former bull rider from Texas, is a quality over quantity guy. He'll never lead the nation in wins with his small stable, but give him an excellent horse and he'll never mess it up. Taking his second Derby last year with Street Sense, 17 years after he got the roses with Unbridled, earned him a plaque on Union Avenue up at the Spa.
Wheeler, who died at 72 in 1992, was an old-timer from Nebraska who probably never will make the Hall because he did most of his best work before 1980. Some of his best-known horses were Track Robbery, The Axe II and A Gleam.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Oh well
Got through the first leg of Aqueduct's Pick 6 with even-money favorite Explosive Count, but the good vibes didn't last long on a soggy Wednesday. When E. Judith finished third to 25-1 winner Credit At Tiffany's in a three-horse photo in the next race, the fantasy ended for my suggested ticket. Scratches had pared it down to $192, but I didn't bet real money because my top pick in the last leg got scratched. I could not in good conscience risk $192 in the hopes that I could guess right in the puzzling finale, a New York-bred mish-mosh of first-time starters and formless creatures.
Hit with another even-money horse, Gullible Gal, in the sixth and appeared to have the seventh locked up with front-running Untopable, but he got caught in the last jump by 7-1 shot Phil's Blue Way. I had seriously considered using Phil's Blue Way, who had won three times on off tracks, but I left him out after going back and forth for a few minutes. So it's just as well that E. Judith got beat, because I would have second-guessed myself mercilessly for not having the guts/smarts to stick with a $17.60 winner that would have kept me alive for the big money. I did play the $66 Phil's Blue Way-Untopable exacta, though, so I ended up a real winner even if I was a virtual loser, which is infinitely better than vice-versa.
Hit with another even-money horse, Gullible Gal, in the sixth and appeared to have the seventh locked up with front-running Untopable, but he got caught in the last jump by 7-1 shot Phil's Blue Way. I had seriously considered using Phil's Blue Way, who had won three times on off tracks, but I left him out after going back and forth for a few minutes. So it's just as well that E. Judith got beat, because I would have second-guessed myself mercilessly for not having the guts/smarts to stick with a $17.60 winner that would have kept me alive for the big money. I did play the $66 Phil's Blue Way-Untopable exacta, though, so I ended up a real winner even if I was a virtual loser, which is infinitely better than vice-versa.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Pick 6 fever
There's a Pick 6 carryover of more than $236,000 Wednesday at Aqueduct, and you're wondering whether you should chase it. I never play the Pick 6, and for some strange reason even I'm interested. Must be the coming of spring, when aging cynics' thoughts turn to seeking life-changing scores.
Complicating matters (or does it simplify them?) is the virtual certainty of a wet track, because rain was forecast to begin in late afternoon Tuesday and continue for at least 24 hours. At noon Tuesday, the Weather Channel estimated a 70- to 80-percent chance of rain for New York Wednesday afternoon. So let's assume the track will be sloppy and speed-favoring and try to find some mudders.
The pool should approach $500,000 by the time the fourth race kicks off the sequence, so even a chalky string of winners would be most rewarding. I went through the past performances for about 90 minutes in the wee hours Tuesday, when my "include any reasonable contender" ticket came to $5,400, a ridiculous outlay even for a mind bet. Only the biggest syndicates would go that deep, and certainly not with only one ticket. I pared it down quite a bit Tuesday afternoon, and undoubtedly weather-related scratches will make it cheaper to play.
Here are my best guesses. If I help you change your life, a 10-percent tip would be appreciated. I'd settle for $20.
4th race: Explosive Count, Raceland/Kong's Revenge entry, My Apology (3)
5th race: Charming Mandate, E. Judith (2)
6th race: Gullible Gal, Ambidaxtrous (2)
7th race: Untopable, Mithaal (2)
8th race: Blew Me Away, City By Sea, Violent Behavior (3)
9th race: Evaluator, Shirley Law, Citifiesta (3)
Let's see, what would that cost: $2x3x2x2x2x3x3= $432. Not cheap, but scratches will knock out some plays, and if you could find a partner or two, failure wouldn't be too expensive and you could share the pain. And if you won, ah, that would be glorious. My pal Craig the Red Sox fan is flying to Vegas Wednesday morning to play the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. He's concerned he might not be able to get to his phone account before the Pick 6 starts. Maybe I can help him there. Excuse me while I give him a call and see if he wants to go in with me.
Complicating matters (or does it simplify them?) is the virtual certainty of a wet track, because rain was forecast to begin in late afternoon Tuesday and continue for at least 24 hours. At noon Tuesday, the Weather Channel estimated a 70- to 80-percent chance of rain for New York Wednesday afternoon. So let's assume the track will be sloppy and speed-favoring and try to find some mudders.
The pool should approach $500,000 by the time the fourth race kicks off the sequence, so even a chalky string of winners would be most rewarding. I went through the past performances for about 90 minutes in the wee hours Tuesday, when my "include any reasonable contender" ticket came to $5,400, a ridiculous outlay even for a mind bet. Only the biggest syndicates would go that deep, and certainly not with only one ticket. I pared it down quite a bit Tuesday afternoon, and undoubtedly weather-related scratches will make it cheaper to play.
Here are my best guesses. If I help you change your life, a 10-percent tip would be appreciated. I'd settle for $20.
4th race: Explosive Count, Raceland/Kong's Revenge entry, My Apology (3)
5th race: Charming Mandate, E. Judith (2)
6th race: Gullible Gal, Ambidaxtrous (2)
7th race: Untopable, Mithaal (2)
8th race: Blew Me Away, City By Sea, Violent Behavior (3)
9th race: Evaluator, Shirley Law, Citifiesta (3)
Let's see, what would that cost: $2x3x2x2x2x3x3= $432. Not cheap, but scratches will knock out some plays, and if you could find a partner or two, failure wouldn't be too expensive and you could share the pain. And if you won, ah, that would be glorious. My pal Craig the Red Sox fan is flying to Vegas Wednesday morning to play the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. He's concerned he might not be able to get to his phone account before the Pick 6 starts. Maybe I can help him there. Excuse me while I give him a call and see if he wants to go in with me.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Hurray for me again!
I hope you played my best bet Saturday, Sierra Sunset, who dominated the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park by three lengths and paid $10.40. That's the second consecutive week I handed out a double-digit winner in a Kentucky Derby prep, following Visionaire ($11) in last week's Gotham. Blogs are fun and can even be profitable.
I hope you didn't bet my other selections, Fort Prado (third) and My Baby Baby (fourth), but one out of three ain't bad.
I hope you didn't bet my other selections, Fort Prado (third) and My Baby Baby (fourth), but one out of three ain't bad.
'War' and surrender
For the 13 millionth time, a horse that couldn't lose did. The previously unbeaten War Pass couldn't deal with his first taste of adversity Saturday and finished last in the Tampa Bay Derby. Once the 2007 2-year-old champion was pinched back at the start, he was up against it, and he never made it to his accustomed spot on a long and easy lead. Owner Robert LaPenta said earlier in the week that his Derby hopeful didn't like being near or next to other horses in a race, and he wasn't kidding. When one-dimensional front-runners have dirt kicked in their face, they usually react like a bully the first time he gets punched in the nose. Shocked, they give up.
"You saw what happened [at the break]," trainer Nick Zito said. "But he got moving and I thought he was in a good position going down the back, but when [jockey Cornelio Velasquez] asked him, nothing happened. I don't know what happened. I just don't know."
Afterward, LaPenta mentioned that War Pass had a slight fever early last week. Anyone who took 1-20 odds on him would have thought twice if they'd been aware of that. The age-old lesson: No matter how good a horse looks on paper, you never know. I thought that for War Pass to lose at Tampa Bay Downs that he had to fall or refuse to leave the gate. As it turned out, he might as well have dwelt in the stalls, because after the bad start, he was finished.
"You saw what happened [at the break]," trainer Nick Zito said. "But he got moving and I thought he was in a good position going down the back, but when [jockey Cornelio Velasquez] asked him, nothing happened. I don't know what happened. I just don't know."
Afterward, LaPenta mentioned that War Pass had a slight fever early last week. Anyone who took 1-20 odds on him would have thought twice if they'd been aware of that. The age-old lesson: No matter how good a horse looks on paper, you never know. I thought that for War Pass to lose at Tampa Bay Downs that he had to fall or refuse to leave the gate. As it turned out, he might as well have dwelt in the stalls, because after the bad start, he was finished.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Saturday picks
Tampa Bay Downs, 4th race: HATTA FORT gets Lasix in her U.S. and two-turn debut after a promising 2-year-old campaign last year in Europe. Won a stakes at 7 furlongs at testing Newmarket, where much of the stretch is uphill, so a mile against a weak field should be no problem. I'm hoping for 9-5 or so but probably won't get it.
Tampa Bay Downs, 10th race: MY BABY BABY should move forward after getting a "bid, hung late" comment last time in a very game runner-up effort over the track.
Tampa Bay Downs, 11th race: Old warrior FORT PRADO should get enough pace to set up his strong late kick in this 5-furlong turf stakes.
Oaklawn Park, 10th race: SIERRA SUNSET (best bet) turned in a brilliant 5-furlong workout at Oaklawn after a very gutty second there behind unbeaten Kentucky Derby hopeful Denis of Cork. The clocker called it "a Smarty Jones-type work. He went fast [59.2 seconds] and galloped out fast [1:11.40]." Sounds good to me. Sierra Sunset should be a decent price in the Grade II Rebel Stakes, where likely favorite Z Fortune is hung out wide in post 9.
Tampa Bay Downs, 10th race: MY BABY BABY should move forward after getting a "bid, hung late" comment last time in a very game runner-up effort over the track.
Tampa Bay Downs, 11th race: Old warrior FORT PRADO should get enough pace to set up his strong late kick in this 5-furlong turf stakes.
Oaklawn Park, 10th race: SIERRA SUNSET (best bet) turned in a brilliant 5-furlong workout at Oaklawn after a very gutty second there behind unbeaten Kentucky Derby hopeful Denis of Cork. The clocker called it "a Smarty Jones-type work. He went fast [59.2 seconds] and galloped out fast [1:11.40]." Sounds good to me. Sierra Sunset should be a decent price in the Grade II Rebel Stakes, where likely favorite Z Fortune is hung out wide in post 9.
Easy pickings for War Pass
There will be big doings in Tampa on Saturday, and I don't mean the renewal of the Yankees-Rays blood feud in that split-squad game at Legends Field. Twelve miles away, the Triple Crown trail makes its annual stop at Tampa Bay Downs, where the undefeated 2007 2-year-old champion, War Pass, will go off at odds of 2-5 or so in the Tampa Bay Derby.
The numbers stack up as a worse mismatch than the Yankees' and Rays' payrolls. It looks like another runaway for the 5-for-5 War Pass, the controlling speed and an unbettable favorite. He might be able to win even with 6-5, 215-pound Shelley "Spike" Duncan in the saddle. Of War Pass' six rivals, only Atoned and Big Truck look remotely competitive, and unless War Pass refuses to leave the gate or falls down, those two will be battling to complete the exacta.
Although War Pass' need-to-lead style and sprinter/miler pedigree will pose concerns down the road, they won't matter in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade III race won last year by eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. He won't be asked the distance question until next time out in his final Derby prep, when he'll go 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Yet even if he handles 9 furlongs, there still will be doubts about his ability to get 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. Will War Pass perform in May like A-Rod in October?
David Carroll trains unbeaten Denis of Cork, one of the few horses that appears to have the pedigree and credentials to test War Pass when the 3-year-olds stretch out. Denis of Cork isn't scheduled to race again until April 5, when he might run into War Pass in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
"It's hard to win the Derby on the lead, but it's been done -- Winning Colors, War Emblem," Carroll said this week. "[War Pass] just goes out and runs them all off their feet. He urges you to go after him, and you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. We're hoping that when he gets to the eighth pole [in the Kentucky Derby], that's when we start to see the chink in his armor, if he has a chink in his armor.
"We don't know. He's unbeaten, so we have to look for something to give us hope."
The numbers stack up as a worse mismatch than the Yankees' and Rays' payrolls. It looks like another runaway for the 5-for-5 War Pass, the controlling speed and an unbettable favorite. He might be able to win even with 6-5, 215-pound Shelley "Spike" Duncan in the saddle. Of War Pass' six rivals, only Atoned and Big Truck look remotely competitive, and unless War Pass refuses to leave the gate or falls down, those two will be battling to complete the exacta.
Although War Pass' need-to-lead style and sprinter/miler pedigree will pose concerns down the road, they won't matter in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade III race won last year by eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. He won't be asked the distance question until next time out in his final Derby prep, when he'll go 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Yet even if he handles 9 furlongs, there still will be doubts about his ability to get 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. Will War Pass perform in May like A-Rod in October?
David Carroll trains unbeaten Denis of Cork, one of the few horses that appears to have the pedigree and credentials to test War Pass when the 3-year-olds stretch out. Denis of Cork isn't scheduled to race again until April 5, when he might run into War Pass in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
"It's hard to win the Derby on the lead, but it's been done -- Winning Colors, War Emblem," Carroll said this week. "[War Pass] just goes out and runs them all off their feet. He urges you to go after him, and you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. We're hoping that when he gets to the eighth pole [in the Kentucky Derby], that's when we start to see the chink in his armor, if he has a chink in his armor.
"We don't know. He's unbeaten, so we have to look for something to give us hope."
Thursday, March 13, 2008
A lad from the old sod
If you've never heard an Irish accent mixed with a slight Southern drawl, you ought to listen to trainer David Carroll. Born in County Meath, he did an internship at the National Stud in County Kildare, the heart of Irish horse country. Carroll, 48, worked six years as an exercise rider for Shug McGaughey, a native of Lexington, Ky., who attended the University of Mississippi. Shug never has lost his down-home country twang, so maybe Carroll picked up a bit of it from him, and living in Louisville has kept it alive.
Carroll went to the 1988 and 1989 Kentucky Derbys with Shug, Seeking the Gold and Easy Goer. He was around plenty of other stars trained by McGaughey, including Personal Ensign, Personal Flag, Rhythm and Dancing Spree, so he knows the Triple Crown drill and how to recognize a special animal. Since opening his own stable in 1992, Carroll has trained numerous stakes-winners but never saddled a horse in America's Race. If the undefeated Denis of Cork stays healthy and in sharp form, he'll be Carroll's first.
Owner William Warren Jr. named the colt for a close friend, a County Cork priest named Denis Casey. Ireland, the birthplace of steeplechasing, prizes thoroughbreds with staying power, and Denis of Cork has the pedigree (by 2002 Florida Derby/Blue Grass winner Harlan's Holiday out of a mare sired by 1990 Kentucky Derby/Breeders' Cup Classic champion Unbridled) to get the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. He won his debut last November at Churchill Downs at 7 furlongs, a rarity, before taking a mile and 40-yard allowance race at the Fair Grounds in January and the mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18.
"He's a big, rangy horse," Carroll said. "He's done nothing wrong so far, and he's improving. He has the potential to be a nice horse, and his best race is yet to come."
The plan is to give Denis of Cork only one more prep before the Derby, with the likeliest spot the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Both races are on April 5, four weeks from Derby Day.
Denis of Cork has won at three tracks and can come from far back or track slow fractions, so versatility is no problem. Carroll's main concern is his light frame. "He's not a robust horse by any means," he said. "I'm always trying to keep weight on him, but he runs well fresh and is very professional . . .
"We want to get another good, hard race into him, and at a mile and an eighth. He has enough [graded-stakes] earnings, so we would be using that race as more of a conditioning tool. He doesn't have to win. Now it's just a question of getting him to the Derby in one piece and moving forward."
Carroll went to the 1988 and 1989 Kentucky Derbys with Shug, Seeking the Gold and Easy Goer. He was around plenty of other stars trained by McGaughey, including Personal Ensign, Personal Flag, Rhythm and Dancing Spree, so he knows the Triple Crown drill and how to recognize a special animal. Since opening his own stable in 1992, Carroll has trained numerous stakes-winners but never saddled a horse in America's Race. If the undefeated Denis of Cork stays healthy and in sharp form, he'll be Carroll's first.
Owner William Warren Jr. named the colt for a close friend, a County Cork priest named Denis Casey. Ireland, the birthplace of steeplechasing, prizes thoroughbreds with staying power, and Denis of Cork has the pedigree (by 2002 Florida Derby/Blue Grass winner Harlan's Holiday out of a mare sired by 1990 Kentucky Derby/Breeders' Cup Classic champion Unbridled) to get the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. He won his debut last November at Churchill Downs at 7 furlongs, a rarity, before taking a mile and 40-yard allowance race at the Fair Grounds in January and the mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18.
"He's a big, rangy horse," Carroll said. "He's done nothing wrong so far, and he's improving. He has the potential to be a nice horse, and his best race is yet to come."
The plan is to give Denis of Cork only one more prep before the Derby, with the likeliest spot the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Both races are on April 5, four weeks from Derby Day.
Denis of Cork has won at three tracks and can come from far back or track slow fractions, so versatility is no problem. Carroll's main concern is his light frame. "He's not a robust horse by any means," he said. "I'm always trying to keep weight on him, but he runs well fresh and is very professional . . .
"We want to get another good, hard race into him, and at a mile and an eighth. He has enough [graded-stakes] earnings, so we would be using that race as more of a conditioning tool. He doesn't have to win. Now it's just a question of getting him to the Derby in one piece and moving forward."
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
From synthetic to down and dirty
The handicapping axiom says don't bet a horse to do something that it's never done. This year, for the first time, Kentucky Derby bettors will have to assess California horses whose entire careers have been spent on synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. So, do you toss them all out or give them the benefit of the doubt?
James Kasparoff trains Bob Black Jack, who recently set the world record of 1:06 2/5 for 6 furlongs on Santa Anita's man-made main track. He expressed confidence that West Coast shippers will have no trouble handling the quirky Churchill Downs track on the first Saturday in May.
"I think you can train on synthetic tracks and run anywhere," Kasparoff said Tuesday. "I don't think there are any fitness issues if you run on synthetic. I was talking to [trainer] Eoin Harty the other day and he feels the same way. But if you go vice versa, training on a natural track and then racing on synthetic, that's a lot harder to do."
Although Street Sense spun his wheels on synthetic surfaces, he won the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Louisville as well as the 2007 Derby after running third and second, respectively, on Keeneland's synthetic track. Trainer Carl Nafzger knew his colt much preferred regular dirt, particularly Churchill's, but sent him to Keeneland for conditioning purposes. Hard Spun, second in the Derby, had his final prep over Turfway Park's artificial surface, but like Street Sense, he was a dirt specialist. There's no question that you can move forward on the sandy loam off a race on synthetic, but can a California horse do it right the first time in the Derby?
Unless you can get very generous odds, you have to be very skeptical. The Kentucky Derby presents a unique set of difficult circumstances, handling 1 1/4 miles in a field of perhaps 20 amid a screaming mob of 140,000. To me, putting money on a horse to overcome another major variable in the toughest race of its life doesn't make sense.
James Kasparoff trains Bob Black Jack, who recently set the world record of 1:06 2/5 for 6 furlongs on Santa Anita's man-made main track. He expressed confidence that West Coast shippers will have no trouble handling the quirky Churchill Downs track on the first Saturday in May.
"I think you can train on synthetic tracks and run anywhere," Kasparoff said Tuesday. "I don't think there are any fitness issues if you run on synthetic. I was talking to [trainer] Eoin Harty the other day and he feels the same way. But if you go vice versa, training on a natural track and then racing on synthetic, that's a lot harder to do."
Although Street Sense spun his wheels on synthetic surfaces, he won the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Louisville as well as the 2007 Derby after running third and second, respectively, on Keeneland's synthetic track. Trainer Carl Nafzger knew his colt much preferred regular dirt, particularly Churchill's, but sent him to Keeneland for conditioning purposes. Hard Spun, second in the Derby, had his final prep over Turfway Park's artificial surface, but like Street Sense, he was a dirt specialist. There's no question that you can move forward on the sandy loam off a race on synthetic, but can a California horse do it right the first time in the Derby?
Unless you can get very generous odds, you have to be very skeptical. The Kentucky Derby presents a unique set of difficult circumstances, handling 1 1/4 miles in a field of perhaps 20 amid a screaming mob of 140,000. To me, putting money on a horse to overcome another major variable in the toughest race of its life doesn't make sense.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
If he gets hooked, will 'War' battle?
He's unbeaten and untested in five races, so every discussion about the 134th Kentucky Derby revolves around the 2007 2-year-old champion, War Pass. After beginning his 3-year-old season at Gulfstream with a runaway over a very bad field, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner returns Saturday in another easy spot, the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby. Another romp there looks most likely. Yet War Pass' strength, his blinding speed, could lead to his undoing on the first Saturday in May. There's usually plenty of cheap speed in the Derby, and if War Pass gets caught up in an early duel, he could be taken down. His owner, Robert LaPenta, admits he's thought about it.
"You're always concerned about somebody sending out a rabbit, like they did in the Belmont with Smarty Jones, when a bunch of horses went after him," LaPenta said Tuesday on a conference call. "He certainly does not like horses next to him or in front of him. So when that happens, we'll have to see how he does."
LaPenta expressed confidence that War Pass' quality and his trainer provide major edges. "I think War Pass is a very special animal," he said, "and I think he's going to surprise a lot of people with his stamina." Among them would be students of pedigree, who wonder how a horse sired by sprinter/miler Cherokee Run out of a Mr. Prospector mare will handle 1 1/4 miles. Cherokee Run did run second in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, though, and the pedigrees of Derby winners Smarty Jones and Funny Cide didn't scream distance, either.
Nick Zito has won the roses twice, with deep closer Strike the Gold (1991) and front-runner Go for Gin (1994), and was fifth in 2004 with LaPenta's first Derby colt, The Cliff's Edge. "There's nobody better at preparing a horse for the Derby than Nick Zito," LaPenta said. "War Pass had a very aggressive 2-year-old campaign [four races in three months], and we're just hoping to have him at his best on Derby Day."
"You're always concerned about somebody sending out a rabbit, like they did in the Belmont with Smarty Jones, when a bunch of horses went after him," LaPenta said Tuesday on a conference call. "He certainly does not like horses next to him or in front of him. So when that happens, we'll have to see how he does."
LaPenta expressed confidence that War Pass' quality and his trainer provide major edges. "I think War Pass is a very special animal," he said, "and I think he's going to surprise a lot of people with his stamina." Among them would be students of pedigree, who wonder how a horse sired by sprinter/miler Cherokee Run out of a Mr. Prospector mare will handle 1 1/4 miles. Cherokee Run did run second in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, though, and the pedigrees of Derby winners Smarty Jones and Funny Cide didn't scream distance, either.
Nick Zito has won the roses twice, with deep closer Strike the Gold (1991) and front-runner Go for Gin (1994), and was fifth in 2004 with LaPenta's first Derby colt, The Cliff's Edge. "There's nobody better at preparing a horse for the Derby than Nick Zito," LaPenta said. "War Pass had a very aggressive 2-year-old campaign [four races in three months], and we're just hoping to have him at his best on Derby Day."
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The generally happy recap
My picks for Saturday had mixed results, with Visionaire ($11) winning the fog-enshrouded Gotham Stakes, the Pyro-Blackberry Road exacta box being half right (useless) in the Louisiana Derby, and best bet Jazzy running second in the Bienville Stakes turf sprint at the Fair Grounds.
At this point, Pyro is the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby, because even though he's 0-for-3 against undefeated War Pass, I doubt that War Pass can stay 1 1/4 miles with his running style (need to lead) and pedigree (speed-slanted on both sides). Once Pyro found a seam in midstretch Saturday, he immediately shot through and drew clear, but you have to wonder whether trainer Steve Asmussen liked Shaun Bridgmohan's ride all that much. For a few strides, it appeared as if Pyro might be full of run with noplace to go. If he gets in that situation in a bigger field, which he'll surely face on the first Saturday in May, he might not be able to get out until too late. Bridgmohan has been winning everything with Asmussen lately, but if Pyro has traffic problems in his final Derby prep, might Asmussen be tempted to reach out for Curlin's rider, Robby Albarado?
Majestic Warrior's 3-year-old debut was much better than his seventh-place finish might indicate. He was three- or four-wide all the way around, had to go to the middle of the track entering the stretch and briefly loomed as a threat in midstretch before tiring badly. Clearly, he needed the race, and his move on the final turn was quite impressive for a colt making his 3-year-old debut in only his fourth lifetime race after a layoff of five months. Watch for him next time at a big price. I'm not tearing up my Derby Future Wager ticket on him yet.
Jazzy was second, but thankfully I had boxed her with the Bienville's 10-1 winner, Danceroftherealm, and the $136 exacta made it a profitable day for me.
At this point, Pyro is the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby, because even though he's 0-for-3 against undefeated War Pass, I doubt that War Pass can stay 1 1/4 miles with his running style (need to lead) and pedigree (speed-slanted on both sides). Once Pyro found a seam in midstretch Saturday, he immediately shot through and drew clear, but you have to wonder whether trainer Steve Asmussen liked Shaun Bridgmohan's ride all that much. For a few strides, it appeared as if Pyro might be full of run with noplace to go. If he gets in that situation in a bigger field, which he'll surely face on the first Saturday in May, he might not be able to get out until too late. Bridgmohan has been winning everything with Asmussen lately, but if Pyro has traffic problems in his final Derby prep, might Asmussen be tempted to reach out for Curlin's rider, Robby Albarado?
Majestic Warrior's 3-year-old debut was much better than his seventh-place finish might indicate. He was three- or four-wide all the way around, had to go to the middle of the track entering the stretch and briefly loomed as a threat in midstretch before tiring badly. Clearly, he needed the race, and his move on the final turn was quite impressive for a colt making his 3-year-old debut in only his fourth lifetime race after a layoff of five months. Watch for him next time at a big price. I'm not tearing up my Derby Future Wager ticket on him yet.
Jazzy was second, but thankfully I had boxed her with the Bienville's 10-1 winner, Danceroftherealm, and the $136 exacta made it a profitable day for me.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Saturday stakes picks
LOUISIANA DERBY: Pyro's last-to-first rally Feb. 9 in the Risen Star Stakes anointed him as the "now" 3-year-old, and we'll see if it's still his time. A bounce is less likely because he only ran hard for the final quarter-mile after loping along behind a very slow pace. He's facing better horses but I find it hard to take a strong stand against him, and I can't bet him to win at puny odds. His stablemate J Be K should ensure a quick pace to set up Pyro's late move.
Adding intrigue to the 1 1/16-mile prep are the returns of stakes-winners Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, each making his season debut. It's hard to expect either will be fully cranked, so advantage to Pyro again. He may not win May 3 in Louisville but he should be hard to beat in the Big Easy. I'll play him in a $10 cold exacta over strong closer Blackberry Road, a longshot who switches to Robby Albarado after two very bad trips under Calvin Borel. I'll also reverse it for $5 just in case.
BIENVILLE STAKES: My best bet of the day runs in this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint the race after the Louisiana Derby. Jazzy won from off the pace at the same distance on the grass at Saratoga, and there's enough pace to set up her late move on a course that's often kind to closers.
GOTHAM STAKES: With rain expected all night Friday right through Saturday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the track so sloppy that the card gets canceled. The undefeated Giant Moon should face pace pressure from Roman Emperor and Saratoga Russell, although he has won on a drying-out track and proved last time he could rate from up close. Visionaire ran a solid, even third behind Pyro in the Risen Star and should like it wet. He comes from out of it, so post 10 may not hurt him that much. A speed bias would be a major problem for him, so I'll wait to see how the track is playing. If closers and midpack types are doing OK, I might put a few bucks on Visionaire.
Handicapped a bunch of other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream but didn't find any more plays with any value. Maybe I'm getting too picky in my old age, but I always find that the fewer bets I make, the better I do.
Adding intrigue to the 1 1/16-mile prep are the returns of stakes-winners Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, each making his season debut. It's hard to expect either will be fully cranked, so advantage to Pyro again. He may not win May 3 in Louisville but he should be hard to beat in the Big Easy. I'll play him in a $10 cold exacta over strong closer Blackberry Road, a longshot who switches to Robby Albarado after two very bad trips under Calvin Borel. I'll also reverse it for $5 just in case.
BIENVILLE STAKES: My best bet of the day runs in this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint the race after the Louisiana Derby. Jazzy won from off the pace at the same distance on the grass at Saratoga, and there's enough pace to set up her late move on a course that's often kind to closers.
GOTHAM STAKES: With rain expected all night Friday right through Saturday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the track so sloppy that the card gets canceled. The undefeated Giant Moon should face pace pressure from Roman Emperor and Saratoga Russell, although he has won on a drying-out track and proved last time he could rate from up close. Visionaire ran a solid, even third behind Pyro in the Risen Star and should like it wet. He comes from out of it, so post 10 may not hurt him that much. A speed bias would be a major problem for him, so I'll wait to see how the track is playing. If closers and midpack types are doing OK, I might put a few bucks on Visionaire.
Handicapped a bunch of other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream but didn't find any more plays with any value. Maybe I'm getting too picky in my old age, but I always find that the fewer bets I make, the better I do.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
The Future is now
In England it's called the ante-post market, and it's been an ATM for bookmakers there for many generations. The come-on: Offer tempting, fixed odds on a horse to win a specific major stakes (Grand National, 2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby) that can be six months down the road. Many horseplayers can't resist taking a shot on a long-term fantasy coming true, but if your horse gets hurt, doesn't run or loses by a nose, you lose. Sure, you get what looks like great value, but deep down, you know it's just a stab and a sucker bet. Not impossible, but very difficult.
Ah, but when your vision becomes reality, the bragging rights are sweeter than the payoff. I hit the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in 2001 with Monarchos, who paid off at 17-1 in pool 1. Of course, he went off at 10-1 on Derby Day, so psychologically it wasn't that rewarding. It felt great anyway, and last year I really did it right. In March I got the absurdly generous price of 8-1 on Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks from a well-known poker Web site. Its horse-price guy deserved to be fired, because seven weeks later she dominated the Oaks as the 3-2 favorite as I exulted at Churchill Downs, shaking my fist and yelling, "I had her at 8-1!8-1!" As I sang "I went from rags to riches," I was loving life. Unfortunately, it took more than three months to collect my winnings of $160, the longest I've ever stood on a line, virtual or otherwise, to cash. Even when you win in the most glorious way possible, life demands a vigorish.
So thanks to Monarchos and Rags to Riches, I'm ahead of the futures game, but if I keep playing it, that most likely will change. But not for a while, so last month I put $5 down on three 3-year-olds, getting 47-1 on Blackberry Road, 18-1 on Majestic Warrior and 18-1 on Crown of Thorns (now, unfortunately, injured and off the Triple Crown trail). I'm still alive with Blackberry Road and Majestic Warrior, both of whom are running Saturday in the Louisiana Derby. They'll have to beat Pyro, the 5-1 favorite among the 23 individual runners in pool 1. The field (all other 3-year-olds) was the 3-1 favorite, and last year's Juvenile champion, the undefeated War Pass, was 6-1.
Pool 2 opened Thursday and closes Sunday, and I won't be participating. If either of my horses pulls a serious upset in New Orleans, his price won't be worth taking. If they finish up the track, their chances for glory on the first Saturday in May will be pretty grim. If so, so what? What's $15 out the window when I've got my memories of Monarchos and Rags to Riches. Sometimes it pays to be a foolish dreamer.
Ah, but when your vision becomes reality, the bragging rights are sweeter than the payoff. I hit the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in 2001 with Monarchos, who paid off at 17-1 in pool 1. Of course, he went off at 10-1 on Derby Day, so psychologically it wasn't that rewarding. It felt great anyway, and last year I really did it right. In March I got the absurdly generous price of 8-1 on Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks from a well-known poker Web site. Its horse-price guy deserved to be fired, because seven weeks later she dominated the Oaks as the 3-2 favorite as I exulted at Churchill Downs, shaking my fist and yelling, "I had her at 8-1!8-1!" As I sang "I went from rags to riches," I was loving life. Unfortunately, it took more than three months to collect my winnings of $160, the longest I've ever stood on a line, virtual or otherwise, to cash. Even when you win in the most glorious way possible, life demands a vigorish.
So thanks to Monarchos and Rags to Riches, I'm ahead of the futures game, but if I keep playing it, that most likely will change. But not for a while, so last month I put $5 down on three 3-year-olds, getting 47-1 on Blackberry Road, 18-1 on Majestic Warrior and 18-1 on Crown of Thorns (now, unfortunately, injured and off the Triple Crown trail). I'm still alive with Blackberry Road and Majestic Warrior, both of whom are running Saturday in the Louisiana Derby. They'll have to beat Pyro, the 5-1 favorite among the 23 individual runners in pool 1. The field (all other 3-year-olds) was the 3-1 favorite, and last year's Juvenile champion, the undefeated War Pass, was 6-1.
Pool 2 opened Thursday and closes Sunday, and I won't be participating. If either of my horses pulls a serious upset in New Orleans, his price won't be worth taking. If they finish up the track, their chances for glory on the first Saturday in May will be pretty grim. If so, so what? What's $15 out the window when I've got my memories of Monarchos and Rags to Riches. Sometimes it pays to be a foolish dreamer.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Another Curlin for Asmussen?
He's training the defending Horse of the Year and one of the leading 3-year-olds, and they're half a world apart, in the Middle East and the Big Easy. While Curlin awaits the $6-million Dubai World Cup on March 29 in his stall at Nad al Sheba Racecourse, Steve Asmussen is preparing Pyro for Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Louisiana Derby. When I asked him Tuesday if Curlin's emergence as King of the World lessened the pressure to win his first Kentucky Derby, Asmussen said, "The success we've had with Curlin has been very satisfying, but it's separate. I think Pyro is a tremendous opportunity. . . It's been good fortune. Coming from a racing family, I know it doesn't have to go this way. It means everything to us."
Last year Asmussen made his Triple Crown breakthrough when Curlin ran down Street Sense in the final jump of the Preakness. Asmussen hopes Pyro will give him his first Derby, and his last-to-first rally last time out in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds was very encouraging.
Asmussen was watching at ground level between the eighth pole and the sixteenth pole when jockey Shaun Bridgmohan took Pyro wide entering the stretch and blew away the field. "Watching it outside live, it was very impressive to watch him accelerate," Asmussen said. "My reaction was somewhat of disbelief."
Although Pyro lost three times last year to 2-year-old champion War Pass, Asmussen said he is more confident about Pyro's Derby chances than he was about Curlin's. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner didn't make his career debut until Feb. 3, and after his first-out runaway for trainer Helen Pitts, Curlin was sold and switched to Asmussen's barn. He had only two more races before the Derby, where he predictably ran greenly early and finished a distant third.
"The time frame with Curlin was very tight," Asmussen said. "With Pyro, we've been working with him since May and experience isn't an issue."
Pyro is "big and scopy, a majestic-looking horse", Asmussen said, and his pedigree (by Pulpit) and late-running style should pose no problems for the classic distances. His temperament is a concern, though. He got very upset before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when he was second to the front-running War Pass but was one of the few horses to make up ground late that day in the slop at Monmouth Park.
"He's on the nervous side. I think we have an extremely talented individual without the maturity of Curlin. The way he finished in the Risen Star showed he's obviously a very fast horse. I'm trying to work on what he does in the middle of the race, to get him from point A to point B."
Last year Asmussen made his Triple Crown breakthrough when Curlin ran down Street Sense in the final jump of the Preakness. Asmussen hopes Pyro will give him his first Derby, and his last-to-first rally last time out in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds was very encouraging.
Asmussen was watching at ground level between the eighth pole and the sixteenth pole when jockey Shaun Bridgmohan took Pyro wide entering the stretch and blew away the field. "Watching it outside live, it was very impressive to watch him accelerate," Asmussen said. "My reaction was somewhat of disbelief."
Although Pyro lost three times last year to 2-year-old champion War Pass, Asmussen said he is more confident about Pyro's Derby chances than he was about Curlin's. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner didn't make his career debut until Feb. 3, and after his first-out runaway for trainer Helen Pitts, Curlin was sold and switched to Asmussen's barn. He had only two more races before the Derby, where he predictably ran greenly early and finished a distant third.
"The time frame with Curlin was very tight," Asmussen said. "With Pyro, we've been working with him since May and experience isn't an issue."
Pyro is "big and scopy, a majestic-looking horse", Asmussen said, and his pedigree (by Pulpit) and late-running style should pose no problems for the classic distances. His temperament is a concern, though. He got very upset before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when he was second to the front-running War Pass but was one of the few horses to make up ground late that day in the slop at Monmouth Park.
"He's on the nervous side. I think we have an extremely talented individual without the maturity of Curlin. The way he finished in the Risen Star showed he's obviously a very fast horse. I'm trying to work on what he does in the middle of the race, to get him from point A to point B."
Monday, March 3, 2008
No, I just can't do it
Upon further review, as a public service I will not offer my uneducated guesses on Wednesday's Pick 6 at Aqueduct. After going in circles for 20 minutes over the first two formless maiden races in the sequence, I cannot in good conscience pretend to have any insights into these absurd animals. Friends, you're on your own. Adding to the fun, the forecast indicates rain Tuesday and Wednesday will make the inner track sloppy, good or muddy.
Tuesday's post will be about Saturday's Gotham Stakes at the Big A and the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. I am confident I can offer a few logical thoughts about the Triple Crown contenders and maybe even land on the weekend's winners. Hey, how would you like Pyro at 1-2 in the Big Easy?
Tuesday's post will be about Saturday's Gotham Stakes at the Big A and the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. I am confident I can offer a few logical thoughts about the Triple Crown contenders and maybe even land on the weekend's winners. Hey, how would you like Pyro at 1-2 in the Big Easy?
Change your life forever
Way back in September 1985, on the day the Pick 6 debuted in New York, my tiny ticket was shredded after the first race when a 3-5 shot finished up the track at Belmont Park. Since then I've played it only two or three times, all on Breeders' Cup day, and never got more than halfway through. Unless you have unlimited discretionary income and can handle long slumps and brutal near-misses, it's the ultimate sucker bet. Almost everybody loses while a few hit big, so why do TVG, HRTV, the NTRA and all the tracks promote it as the cure for a lifetime of horseplaying aggravation?
Last Saturday at Santa Anita, the carryover-bloated Pick 6 pool on Big 'Cap Day went beyond $1.6 million, and just one ticket had all six for $645,097. It was purchased in Las Vegas, so everyone at the Great Race Place got nothing. Not so great. Thousands walk to the parking lot a few hundred, or a maybe a few thousand, poorer, and this is good for the sport? I can't think of an easier way to blow all your money.
Californians are by far the most susceptible to Pick 6 Fever, perhaps a holdover from the Gold Rush mentality of 1849. Horseplayers from the Golden State love impossibly exotic wagers, and now Santa Anita even features a Super High Five in the final race, where all you have to do is pick the first five finishers in order. Makes hitting a straight triple seem like a lock.
Six-figure carryovers are common out west, especially since form often has disappeared since the installation of quirky synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. As a rule, New York players don't go nuts over the Pick 6, but on Wednesday many otherwise wary bettors will dive in.
For dreamers who love taking a wild stab at a potential fortune, Monday's email from NYRA was most alluring: "Don't miss out on the enormous Pick 6 carryover this Wednesday at Aqueduct!" There's $265,874 in the pool, which should exceed half a million by the time the madness begins with a field of $15,000 state-bred maiden claimers with a total record of 0-for-32. The next race is a $7,500 claimer, and I never bet on any horse I could afford to write a check for. Then there's a $25,000 maiden claimer, followed by two events where there actually is some form to ponder, $75,000 and $50,000 optional claimers with allowance conditions. For those lucky few still alive, the grand finale is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds.
Do you really want to do this? Unlike my friend Craig the Red Sox fan, I won't be trying to hit a grand slam in the fog with the wind blowing in. But give me a few hours and I'll come back with some suggestions on how to torment yourself and blow a few hundred bucks on Wednesday afternoon.
Last Saturday at Santa Anita, the carryover-bloated Pick 6 pool on Big 'Cap Day went beyond $1.6 million, and just one ticket had all six for $645,097. It was purchased in Las Vegas, so everyone at the Great Race Place got nothing. Not so great. Thousands walk to the parking lot a few hundred, or a maybe a few thousand, poorer, and this is good for the sport? I can't think of an easier way to blow all your money.
Californians are by far the most susceptible to Pick 6 Fever, perhaps a holdover from the Gold Rush mentality of 1849. Horseplayers from the Golden State love impossibly exotic wagers, and now Santa Anita even features a Super High Five in the final race, where all you have to do is pick the first five finishers in order. Makes hitting a straight triple seem like a lock.
Six-figure carryovers are common out west, especially since form often has disappeared since the installation of quirky synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. As a rule, New York players don't go nuts over the Pick 6, but on Wednesday many otherwise wary bettors will dive in.
For dreamers who love taking a wild stab at a potential fortune, Monday's email from NYRA was most alluring: "Don't miss out on the enormous Pick 6 carryover this Wednesday at Aqueduct!" There's $265,874 in the pool, which should exceed half a million by the time the madness begins with a field of $15,000 state-bred maiden claimers with a total record of 0-for-32. The next race is a $7,500 claimer, and I never bet on any horse I could afford to write a check for. Then there's a $25,000 maiden claimer, followed by two events where there actually is some form to ponder, $75,000 and $50,000 optional claimers with allowance conditions. For those lucky few still alive, the grand finale is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds.
Do you really want to do this? Unlike my friend Craig the Red Sox fan, I won't be trying to hit a grand slam in the fog with the wind blowing in. But give me a few hours and I'll come back with some suggestions on how to torment yourself and blow a few hundred bucks on Wednesday afternoon.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Distanced, eased
As the Gridiron Guide always says, "There's no future in the prediction business," which I proved again with my futile debut Saturday in the NHC contest. I had only two winners (paying $8.80, $5.20 and $5, $2.40) in 10 races to wind up in a tie for 493rd place with a grand total of $21.40. My lock of the day, War Monger, never looked like a winner and finished a distant third at even money in the Kilmore Mile Handicap on the grass at Santa Anita. At least I didn't put any real money on him because his odds were too low. Amid disappointment, you have to get into what's good.
I missed a few logical winners in contentious races and couldn't have come up with Highly Honored ($61.20), Frankbillnjason ($56.60) or Everafriend, who outran War Monger and paid $20.60. Some geniuses (lucky stabbers?) hit at least one of those bombers, though, because the top three finishers accumulated $140.40, $137 and $136.20 and earned spots in the NTRA/Daily Racing Form National Handicapping Championship next January in Vegas. I'll take another shot April 5 in the NHC's next online contest.
At least I didn't oh-fer, though, unlike the 69 clowns who couldn't get even one horse to finish second. It's always nice to have somebody to look down upon. Thank you, losers, you made my day.
I missed a few logical winners in contentious races and couldn't have come up with Highly Honored ($61.20), Frankbillnjason ($56.60) or Everafriend, who outran War Monger and paid $20.60. Some geniuses (lucky stabbers?) hit at least one of those bombers, though, because the top three finishers accumulated $140.40, $137 and $136.20 and earned spots in the NTRA/Daily Racing Form National Handicapping Championship next January in Vegas. I'll take another shot April 5 in the NHC's next online contest.
At least I didn't oh-fer, though, unlike the 69 clowns who couldn't get even one horse to finish second. It's always nice to have somebody to look down upon. Thank you, losers, you made my day.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)