There isn't a more attractive racetrack in North America than tradition-rich Keeneland. Set in the heart of the Bluegrass country of central Kentucky, it gladdens the hearts and soothes the souls of Old School horse people. Its slogan is "Racing as It Was Meant to Be," but they're talking about style, not substance. To those more interested in cashing tickets than absorbing atmosphere, and that means most of us, the motto should be "What Happens at Keeneland, Stays at Keeneland."
There are few tracks whose results translate worse elsewhere than Keeneland, and that hasn't changed since its switch to a synthetic surface in the fall of 2006. A place that was insanely biased toward inside speed has done a 180, with few wire-to-wire winners on the Polytrack. It used to be that if your horse wasn't in the first three early, you were angry and prepared for defeat. Now you're happy if your horse trails until the top of the stretch. At least the turf course hasn't been tampered with. It's generally fair, though tilted toward midpack runners and closers, with front-runners often taking the worst of it.
Keeneland's marquee event, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, annually is hyped as a major Kentucky Derby prep, but since 1979 only one horse, Strike the Gold in 1991, has pulled off the Blue Grass-Derby double. (Street Sense almost did it last year, losing the Blue Grass by a nose.) The Blue Grass is a valuable conditioning race, but its winners are traditional underperforming underlays on the first Saturday in May. Its also-rans have done far better in the Derby, usually at juicy odds.
Saturday's Blue Grass has drawn a field of 12, its biggest in 25 years, making it an excellent betting race. Pyro, one of the top 3-year-olds, will be heavily favored off impressive wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. But this is his debut on Polytrack, and his connections don't want to knock him out to win it. For him, it's an obvious final step to the Derby, the main goal. So even if he wins at 6-5 or so, he's a bad bet. Other contenders who have trained impressively at Keeneland are Big Truck, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire, and I'd think twice about leaving them off your Blue Grass tickets.
There's an interesting two-day double linking Friday's Maker's Mark Stakes on Keeneland's grass with the Blue Grass. If you can bet it on your Internet site or at OTB, I recommend using Kip Deville and War Monger in the Maker's Mark with Pyro, Big Truck, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire.
Ed McNamara only bets on four-legged animals
Thursday, April 10, 2008
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1 comment:
Good lord, Ed, no one is posting comments on your blog and it's really good. Nice call on touting Cowboy Cal, who happens to be one of the horses I like in the Derby. See you in Louisville. -- John Scheinman
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