The Future Is Now, Part III

The third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager runs from Thursday through Sunday, but it's a bit late to dive into this kind of a pool. The money in future bets nearly always is made early on, when most people are taking wild shots or overbetting the leading 2-year-olds. If you have a strong opinion on a promising horse and can get what you consider overlaid odds, that's the time to get down. This year I was into stabbing mode, and barring a miracle, my $5 bets in Pool 1 on Crown of Thorns (injured, won't run), Blackberry Road (not good enough) and Majestic Warrior (great pedigree, two lousy preps) are lost and gone forever. Boo hoo.

I can't recall ever getting involved in Pool 3. Anyone who took the ever-popular "all others" in Pools 1 and 2 is rooting hard for the latest phenom, undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown, who was not a separate interest until Pool 3. They're also hoping that the overbet Pyro and War Pass go off form or bomb out at Churchill Downs.

I've scored this year on turf and artificial surface with Lane's End Stakes winner Adriano, so I might throw $5 on him while hoping that his connections will change their minds about skipping the Derby. The son of A.P. Indy was up the track with excuses (post 12, bad trip) in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, his only try on dirt. Maybe he deserves another chance, although they could probably find a less risky place to experiment than the Kentucky Derby.

After Adriano's 2 1/2-length romp in the Lane's End on Turfway Park's Polytrack, his owner, Donald Adam, told the Thoroughbred Times: "This is not on the dirt. I just think we'd have to think long and hard whether that would make sense for him. Because the worst thing in the world is if we were to do that and he did very poorly, it may set him back. We think there are a lot of very nice races to be run this year."

Wise words, but if Adriano runs well next time out, probably in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes on Keeneland's synthetic surface two weeks before the Derby, can Adam and trainer Graham Motion remain immune to Derby Fever? If so, good for them, and their admirable self-discipline should serve them well down the road. But maybe they'll surrender to temptation, as nearly all do, and think, "Well, there's only one Derby, so we're going to take a shot."

So this weekend I'm going to put $5 on Adriano, knowing I'm taking a chance (that he'll run in the Derby) that I'll get an even more unlikely chance (that he'll win). But bettor, beware: Do as I say, not as I do. I'm not recommending that you follow my convoluted illogic, but for $5 at odds of 20-1 or greater, I won't have any regrets.