Friday, March 28, 2008

Saturday stakes picks

There's an endless flow of stakes on Saturday, starting at 9:30 a.m. with TVG's coverage of the Dubai World Cup card and continuing into late afternoon with the Florida Derby program at Gulfstream. Let's see if I can stay hot after touting three winners of Derby preps that all paid more than $10 the past three weeks.

Dubai Golden Shaheen: If you can get the 5-1 morning line on Benny the Bull, you'll be lucky. There's plenty of pace in here, and Benny can track the speed or come from midpack. Diabolical, the likely favorite under Frankie Dettori, is the main danger, and Idiot Proof also belongs in exactas.

Dubai Sheema Classic: Viva Pataca (2-for-2 at 1 1/2 miles on turf) looks like a deserving favorite, but at 2-1 or so he won't be very inviting. There's a buzz in Europe about last year's Arc runner-up, Youmzain, but he's a teaser who's lost five in a row and may need softer ground. Last year's Man o' War winner, Dr. Dino, also is in with a chance. Other exacta candidates that should be double-digit odds are Quijano, the filly West Wind and Oracle West. It looks as if 9-year-old Better Talk Now has lost a few steps.

Dubai World Cup: Concede the race to Curlin and play him in a cold exacta with improving 4-year-old Jalil, who's 2-for-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Nad al Sheba Racecourse. As of early Friday, he was the 6-1 second choice among the English bookmakers, who wisely respect Godolphin horses ridden by Frankie Dettori in the world's richest race.

Bonnie Miss Stakes: Highest Class is bred for 1 1/8 miles (by Mineshaft) and is the best finisher in a speed-laden field. Backseat Rhythm should get up for second.

Florida Derby: Can the 3-year-old phenom Big Brown, the Horse of the Moment, live up to his sudden burst of hype and win from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream? Horses from post 8 and out are 0-for-37 there this meet when trying 9 furlongs. I'm taking a shot with George Steinbrenner's colt, Majestic Warrior, who unfortunately is stuck in post 10. However, he has some things to like, and his morning line is a very tempting 15-1. The son of A.P. Indy out of a stakes-winning Seeking the Gold mare has the best distance pedigree in the field, and his wide-trip seventh in the Louisiana Derby should move him forward. He made a strong move on the turn and briefly battled for the lead in the stretch before fading. He lost a ton of ground and ran as if he was short of condition, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott clearly didn't have him fully cranked up. He's turned in two strong workouts since and should be ready to give a much better effort. I'll play Majestic Warrior across the board and box him with Elysium Fields and Big Brown in exactas.