Mister Ed's Saturday stakes picks

WOOD MEMORIAL: If not for War Pass' attempt to prove that his Tampa Bay Derby flop was a fluke, there would be no compelling storyline for New York's marquee prep for the Kentucky Derby. War Pass doesn't have much to beat, and I agree with his owner, Robert LaPenta, that the 2007 2-year-old champion should win the Wood. I think he'll make the lead without much trouble and never give it up. He probably flipped his palate at Tampa Bay Downs, because his last-place shocker was too bad to be true. If he's 8-5 or better, I'll be betting him.

My gut feeling is that War Pass will revive his reputation with a front-running win, bringing back many of those who jumped off his bandwagon last month. So he'll go off at underlaid odds in the Derby, get caught in a speed duel and back up at the top of the stretch. Then he might bounce back in the Preakness at a nice price. We've all been through that movie many times, so why not again?

ILLINOIS DERBY: Like War Pass at the Big A, a loss would hurt Denis of Cork more than a win against a weak field would help him. After skipping the Rebel at Oaklawn, David Carroll ships the unbeaten (3-for-3) son of Unbridled to suburban Chicago for what looks like easy pickings. Well, maybe. If you could get the morning-line odds of 2-1 on 'Denis,' he'd be worth a bet, but you won't, with 7-5 or 8-5 more likely. His deep-closing style also is a concern in a field without a lot of speed.

I see Golden Spikes getting loose on the lead, with Atoned tracking in midpack and Denis of Cork laying back until the very long Hawthorne stretch. Atoned will get in front inside the eighth pole but get caught, as usual, in deep stretch, by Denis of Cork, with Golden Spikes holding for third.

SANTA ANITA DERBY: As they did March 1 in the Sham Stakes, Colonel John and El Gato Malo will be maybe a length apart just behind the pacesetter, who this time will be the very fast Bob Black Jack. The front-runner is quality speed, but unless he's allowed to get away with easy fractions, he'll be overtaken in midstretch. El Gato Malo will turn the tables on Colonel John by winning a tight one, and both will go on to Louisville with nice records and bankrolls but absolutely no experience on conventional dirt. That will be a major theme for the 134th Derby: How seriously should you regard California horses who have raced only on synthetic tracks?

In other Saturday stakes, I like Fracas in Gulfstream's Pan American Handicap at 1 1/2 miles on the turf, and I'll go with Country Star to beat fellow multiple stakes-winners Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. I handicapped the rest of Aqueduct's all-stakes Pick 4 but didn't have any firm opinions about the Bay Shore Stakes, Excelsior Handicap or Carter Handicap. That doesn't mean I won't gamble on them. It just means that I shouldn't.