Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Carryover chaos at the Big A

I briefly considered taking a stab at Wednesday's two-day Pick 6 carryover of $205,953 at Aqueduct, but I changed my mind after checking out the first race in the sequence. This $35,000 maiden claimer on the grass has little turf form or pedigree, so I won't be investing in a pool that might approach $750,000. But if you want "guidance," I'll suggest the horses I would use if forced to play it. Just remember, nothing is cheaper than free advice, especially when dealing with somebody else's money. If my arithmetic is correct, this ticket would come to $576 -- $2 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 3. Good luck, but remind yourself why it's called disposable income.

4th race: SHE'S MY SUNSHINE and EULOGIZE have shown brief flashes of ability on the grass, more than you can say about the rest of this sad group.

5th race: BEBOP earned a top fig in breaking his maiden last out, and he finished second to PARKY when he won as a first-timer in late January.

6th race: Went four deep with JIMMY JUMP JUMP, who just missed at this level two starts ago; Allen Jerkens class dropper/Florida shipper WHO CAN BLUFF; VOLOS, an Asmussen shipper from Gulfstream who has speed; and the likely favorite, the Contessa entry of BALLADO ALERT and MACKINAW.

7th race: RAW SILK went wire to wire in her grass debut but was DQ'd; gets a free shot and could be singled to pare down the ticket. JELLY ROLL was respectable in two grass tries in Florida, and SONNETS WAY closed well on turf for fourth Dec. 31 in her debut.

8th race: COSMIC is the only one in the field who's won at 1 1/8 miles. PLURACITY has speed, won his last two and chased some good 3-year-olds in Florida, including Holy Bull winner Hey Byrn and Smooth Air, runner-up to Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown in the Florida Derby.

9th race: If you're still alive (most unlikely), a dozen inscrutable New York-bred maiden turfers stand in the way of your life-changing score. SIR CRYPTOMITE ran second last fall in his only grass try. WONDEROUS DAY hit the board in two of his three turf races. Barclay Tagg's DIRTY WATER DOG is working well for his grass debut after a three-month layoff since he bombed at 7-5 as a first-timer.

Good luck, and if by some miracle this ticket hits, I'll be expecting a generous tip.

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