Jinxes? Not really

Henry Ford, the grouchy mechanical genius who put America on wheels, was a farmboy who didn't like horses. He also said, "History is bunk."

No race is overanalyzed more than the Kentucky Derby, and students of history can get mighty rigid when handicapping it. No horse has won the Derby in its fourth career start since 1915, which is quite a while. Not even Curlin, the eventual 2007 Horse of the Year, could overcome his lack of experience in the Derby, where he ran a distant third after a troubled start. Big Brown has run only three times in his lifetime. So even though he's clearly the fastest horse in the 134th Run for the Roses, is this heavy favorite an automatic throwout?

Certainly not. Very few horses run for only the fourth time in the Derby, so there's the "small sample" factor. Since 1900, besides Regret, the filly who won it in 1915, and Curlin, only nine Derby runners had three starts. Only Curlin finished in the money, but he was by far the most gifted of this group. Here are the odds on the rest: 39-1, 10-1, 39-1, 12-1, 33-1, 12-1, 19-1, 11-1, 26-1. Except for Curlin, none of them was highly rated, and the odds on four would have been much higher if they had not been part of the mutuel field or a coupled entry.

Eventually, all streaks end. Last year, Street Sense became the first to complete the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double. Then Rags to Riches became the first filly since 1905 to win the Belmont Stakes. Of the first 22 Juvenile winners, only 12 made it to the Derby, so there was another very small sample. Same thing with fillies in the Belmont. Between Tanya's victory in 1905 and Rags to Riches, only 10 females took a shot at "The Test of the Champion."

On paper, Big Brown looks better than Curlin did before last year's Derby, and this year's 3-year-olds appear far weaker than the 2007 bunch. So if Big Brown holds his form and doesn't have a bad trip, he has an excellent chance. Street Sense had the most impressive form entering the Derby and won, and it would be no shock if that happened again. The best horse taking the Derby as the favorite in consecutive years? What a concept. Who knows, it might even start a streak.