As usual, Keeneland's Lexington Stakes offers very marginal horses a final opportunity to add enough graded-stakes earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field, whether they belong there or not. The last time the Lexington produced a Derby winner was in 1999, when Charismatic won both races at big odds. It's most unlikely that there's another Charismatic in Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Grade II on the Polytrack.
The top four appear to be Big Glen (4-for-6 on Polytrack); Atoned (a teaser who disappointed again in the Illinois Derby); Todd Pletcher's Behindatthebar (2-for-3 on Santa Anita's synthetic track) and the Peruvian-raced Tomcito (a distant third to Big Brown in the Florida Derby). I'll be sitting out the Lexington, which is filled with sprint types and two horses who just broke their maiden. Don't look for the Derby winner in here.
My only bet of the day will be in the previous race, the 5-furlong Giant's Causeway Stakes on the grass for fillies and mares. I'll play Jazzy to turn the tables on Danceroftherealm, who pulled a $23.80 upset on Jazzy last time out at the Fair Grounds. Jazzy got bottled up inside at a key point at the top of the stretch and didn't get clear until too late, and her late move wasn't enough. She ran out of ground as Danceroftherealm got first run on her down the center of the course. There's plenty of cheap speed to set up Jazzy's powerful finishing kick, and if she's on her game, she should win at 5-2 or so.
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