Saturday stakes picks

LOUISIANA DERBY: Pyro's last-to-first rally Feb. 9 in the Risen Star Stakes anointed him as the "now" 3-year-old, and we'll see if it's still his time. A bounce is less likely because he only ran hard for the final quarter-mile after loping along behind a very slow pace. He's facing better horses but I find it hard to take a strong stand against him, and I can't bet him to win at puny odds. His stablemate J Be K should ensure a quick pace to set up Pyro's late move.

Adding intrigue to the 1 1/16-mile prep are the returns of stakes-winners Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, each making his season debut. It's hard to expect either will be fully cranked, so advantage to Pyro again. He may not win May 3 in Louisville but he should be hard to beat in the Big Easy. I'll play him in a $10 cold exacta over strong closer Blackberry Road, a longshot who switches to Robby Albarado after two very bad trips under Calvin Borel. I'll also reverse it for $5 just in case.

BIENVILLE STAKES: My best bet of the day runs in this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint the race after the Louisiana Derby. Jazzy won from off the pace at the same distance on the grass at Saratoga, and there's enough pace to set up her late move on a course that's often kind to closers.

GOTHAM STAKES: With rain expected all night Friday right through Saturday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the track so sloppy that the card gets canceled. The undefeated Giant Moon should face pace pressure from Roman Emperor and Saratoga Russell, although he has won on a drying-out track and proved last time he could rate from up close. Visionaire ran a solid, even third behind Pyro in the Risen Star and should like it wet. He comes from out of it, so post 10 may not hurt him that much. A speed bias would be a major problem for him, so I'll wait to see how the track is playing. If closers and midpack types are doing OK, I might put a few bucks on Visionaire.

Handicapped a bunch of other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream but didn't find any more plays with any value. Maybe I'm getting too picky in my old age, but I always find that the fewer bets I make, the better I do.