Monday, March 3, 2008

Change your life forever

Way back in September 1985, on the day the Pick 6 debuted in New York, my tiny ticket was shredded after the first race when a 3-5 shot finished up the track at Belmont Park. Since then I've played it only two or three times, all on Breeders' Cup day, and never got more than halfway through. Unless you have unlimited discretionary income and can handle long slumps and brutal near-misses, it's the ultimate sucker bet. Almost everybody loses while a few hit big, so why do TVG, HRTV, the NTRA and all the tracks promote it as the cure for a lifetime of horseplaying aggravation?

Last Saturday at Santa Anita, the carryover-bloated Pick 6 pool on Big 'Cap Day went beyond $1.6 million, and just one ticket had all six for $645,097. It was purchased in Las Vegas, so everyone at the Great Race Place got nothing. Not so great. Thousands walk to the parking lot a few hundred, or a maybe a few thousand, poorer, and this is good for the sport? I can't think of an easier way to blow all your money.

Californians are by far the most susceptible to Pick 6 Fever, perhaps a holdover from the Gold Rush mentality of 1849. Horseplayers from the Golden State love impossibly exotic wagers, and now Santa Anita even features a Super High Five in the final race, where all you have to do is pick the first five finishers in order. Makes hitting a straight triple seem like a lock.

Six-figure carryovers are common out west, especially since form often has disappeared since the installation of quirky synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. As a rule, New York players don't go nuts over the Pick 6, but on Wednesday many otherwise wary bettors will dive in.

For dreamers who love taking a wild stab at a potential fortune, Monday's email from NYRA was most alluring: "Don't miss out on the enormous Pick 6 carryover this Wednesday at Aqueduct!" There's $265,874 in the pool, which should exceed half a million by the time the madness begins with a field of $15,000 state-bred maiden claimers with a total record of 0-for-32. The next race is a $7,500 claimer, and I never bet on any horse I could afford to write a check for. Then there's a $25,000 maiden claimer, followed by two events where there actually is some form to ponder, $75,000 and $50,000 optional claimers with allowance conditions. For those lucky few still alive, the grand finale is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds.

Do you really want to do this? Unlike my friend Craig the Red Sox fan, I won't be trying to hit a grand slam in the fog with the wind blowing in. But give me a few hours and I'll come back with some suggestions on how to torment yourself and blow a few hundred bucks on Wednesday afternoon.

No comments: