Saturday, March 8, 2008

The generally happy recap

My picks for Saturday had mixed results, with Visionaire ($11) winning the fog-enshrouded Gotham Stakes, the Pyro-Blackberry Road exacta box being half right (useless) in the Louisiana Derby, and best bet Jazzy running second in the Bienville Stakes turf sprint at the Fair Grounds.

At this point, Pyro is the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby, because even though he's 0-for-3 against undefeated War Pass, I doubt that War Pass can stay 1 1/4 miles with his running style (need to lead) and pedigree (speed-slanted on both sides). Once Pyro found a seam in midstretch Saturday, he immediately shot through and drew clear, but you have to wonder whether trainer Steve Asmussen liked Shaun Bridgmohan's ride all that much. For a few strides, it appeared as if Pyro might be full of run with noplace to go. If he gets in that situation in a bigger field, which he'll surely face on the first Saturday in May, he might not be able to get out until too late. Bridgmohan has been winning everything with Asmussen lately, but if Pyro has traffic problems in his final Derby prep, might Asmussen be tempted to reach out for Curlin's rider, Robby Albarado?

Majestic Warrior's 3-year-old debut was much better than his seventh-place finish might indicate. He was three- or four-wide all the way around, had to go to the middle of the track entering the stretch and briefly loomed as a threat in midstretch before tiring badly. Clearly, he needed the race, and his move on the final turn was quite impressive for a colt making his 3-year-old debut in only his fourth lifetime race after a layoff of five months. Watch for him next time at a big price. I'm not tearing up my Derby Future Wager ticket on him yet.

Jazzy was second, but thankfully I had boxed her with the Bienville's 10-1 winner, Danceroftherealm, and the $136 exacta made it a profitable day for me.

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