If you've never heard an Irish accent mixed with a slight Southern drawl, you ought to listen to trainer David Carroll. Born in County Meath, he did an internship at the National Stud in County Kildare, the heart of Irish horse country. Carroll, 48, worked six years as an exercise rider for Shug McGaughey, a native of Lexington, Ky., who attended the University of Mississippi. Shug never has lost his down-home country twang, so maybe Carroll picked up a bit of it from him, and living in Louisville has kept it alive.
Carroll went to the 1988 and 1989 Kentucky Derbys with Shug, Seeking the Gold and Easy Goer. He was around plenty of other stars trained by McGaughey, including Personal Ensign, Personal Flag, Rhythm and Dancing Spree, so he knows the Triple Crown drill and how to recognize a special animal. Since opening his own stable in 1992, Carroll has trained numerous stakes-winners but never saddled a horse in America's Race. If the undefeated Denis of Cork stays healthy and in sharp form, he'll be Carroll's first.
Owner William Warren Jr. named the colt for a close friend, a County Cork priest named Denis Casey. Ireland, the birthplace of steeplechasing, prizes thoroughbreds with staying power, and Denis of Cork has the pedigree (by 2002 Florida Derby/Blue Grass winner Harlan's Holiday out of a mare sired by 1990 Kentucky Derby/Breeders' Cup Classic champion Unbridled) to get the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. He won his debut last November at Churchill Downs at 7 furlongs, a rarity, before taking a mile and 40-yard allowance race at the Fair Grounds in January and the mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18.
"He's a big, rangy horse," Carroll said. "He's done nothing wrong so far, and he's improving. He has the potential to be a nice horse, and his best race is yet to come."
The plan is to give Denis of Cork only one more prep before the Derby, with the likeliest spot the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Both races are on April 5, four weeks from Derby Day.
Denis of Cork has won at three tracks and can come from far back or track slow fractions, so versatility is no problem. Carroll's main concern is his light frame. "He's not a robust horse by any means," he said. "I'm always trying to keep weight on him, but he runs well fresh and is very professional . . .
"We want to get another good, hard race into him, and at a mile and an eighth. He has enough [graded-stakes] earnings, so we would be using that race as more of a conditioning tool. He doesn't have to win. Now it's just a question of getting him to the Derby in one piece and moving forward."
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
From synthetic to down and dirty
The handicapping axiom says don't bet a horse to do something that it's never done. This year, for the first time, Kentucky Derby bettors will have to assess California horses whose entire careers have been spent on synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. So, do you toss them all out or give them the benefit of the doubt?
James Kasparoff trains Bob Black Jack, who recently set the world record of 1:06 2/5 for 6 furlongs on Santa Anita's man-made main track. He expressed confidence that West Coast shippers will have no trouble handling the quirky Churchill Downs track on the first Saturday in May.
"I think you can train on synthetic tracks and run anywhere," Kasparoff said Tuesday. "I don't think there are any fitness issues if you run on synthetic. I was talking to [trainer] Eoin Harty the other day and he feels the same way. But if you go vice versa, training on a natural track and then racing on synthetic, that's a lot harder to do."
Although Street Sense spun his wheels on synthetic surfaces, he won the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Louisville as well as the 2007 Derby after running third and second, respectively, on Keeneland's synthetic track. Trainer Carl Nafzger knew his colt much preferred regular dirt, particularly Churchill's, but sent him to Keeneland for conditioning purposes. Hard Spun, second in the Derby, had his final prep over Turfway Park's artificial surface, but like Street Sense, he was a dirt specialist. There's no question that you can move forward on the sandy loam off a race on synthetic, but can a California horse do it right the first time in the Derby?
Unless you can get very generous odds, you have to be very skeptical. The Kentucky Derby presents a unique set of difficult circumstances, handling 1 1/4 miles in a field of perhaps 20 amid a screaming mob of 140,000. To me, putting money on a horse to overcome another major variable in the toughest race of its life doesn't make sense.
James Kasparoff trains Bob Black Jack, who recently set the world record of 1:06 2/5 for 6 furlongs on Santa Anita's man-made main track. He expressed confidence that West Coast shippers will have no trouble handling the quirky Churchill Downs track on the first Saturday in May.
"I think you can train on synthetic tracks and run anywhere," Kasparoff said Tuesday. "I don't think there are any fitness issues if you run on synthetic. I was talking to [trainer] Eoin Harty the other day and he feels the same way. But if you go vice versa, training on a natural track and then racing on synthetic, that's a lot harder to do."
Although Street Sense spun his wheels on synthetic surfaces, he won the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Louisville as well as the 2007 Derby after running third and second, respectively, on Keeneland's synthetic track. Trainer Carl Nafzger knew his colt much preferred regular dirt, particularly Churchill's, but sent him to Keeneland for conditioning purposes. Hard Spun, second in the Derby, had his final prep over Turfway Park's artificial surface, but like Street Sense, he was a dirt specialist. There's no question that you can move forward on the sandy loam off a race on synthetic, but can a California horse do it right the first time in the Derby?
Unless you can get very generous odds, you have to be very skeptical. The Kentucky Derby presents a unique set of difficult circumstances, handling 1 1/4 miles in a field of perhaps 20 amid a screaming mob of 140,000. To me, putting money on a horse to overcome another major variable in the toughest race of its life doesn't make sense.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
If he gets hooked, will 'War' battle?
He's unbeaten and untested in five races, so every discussion about the 134th Kentucky Derby revolves around the 2007 2-year-old champion, War Pass. After beginning his 3-year-old season at Gulfstream with a runaway over a very bad field, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner returns Saturday in another easy spot, the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby. Another romp there looks most likely. Yet War Pass' strength, his blinding speed, could lead to his undoing on the first Saturday in May. There's usually plenty of cheap speed in the Derby, and if War Pass gets caught up in an early duel, he could be taken down. His owner, Robert LaPenta, admits he's thought about it.
"You're always concerned about somebody sending out a rabbit, like they did in the Belmont with Smarty Jones, when a bunch of horses went after him," LaPenta said Tuesday on a conference call. "He certainly does not like horses next to him or in front of him. So when that happens, we'll have to see how he does."
LaPenta expressed confidence that War Pass' quality and his trainer provide major edges. "I think War Pass is a very special animal," he said, "and I think he's going to surprise a lot of people with his stamina." Among them would be students of pedigree, who wonder how a horse sired by sprinter/miler Cherokee Run out of a Mr. Prospector mare will handle 1 1/4 miles. Cherokee Run did run second in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, though, and the pedigrees of Derby winners Smarty Jones and Funny Cide didn't scream distance, either.
Nick Zito has won the roses twice, with deep closer Strike the Gold (1991) and front-runner Go for Gin (1994), and was fifth in 2004 with LaPenta's first Derby colt, The Cliff's Edge. "There's nobody better at preparing a horse for the Derby than Nick Zito," LaPenta said. "War Pass had a very aggressive 2-year-old campaign [four races in three months], and we're just hoping to have him at his best on Derby Day."
"You're always concerned about somebody sending out a rabbit, like they did in the Belmont with Smarty Jones, when a bunch of horses went after him," LaPenta said Tuesday on a conference call. "He certainly does not like horses next to him or in front of him. So when that happens, we'll have to see how he does."
LaPenta expressed confidence that War Pass' quality and his trainer provide major edges. "I think War Pass is a very special animal," he said, "and I think he's going to surprise a lot of people with his stamina." Among them would be students of pedigree, who wonder how a horse sired by sprinter/miler Cherokee Run out of a Mr. Prospector mare will handle 1 1/4 miles. Cherokee Run did run second in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, though, and the pedigrees of Derby winners Smarty Jones and Funny Cide didn't scream distance, either.
Nick Zito has won the roses twice, with deep closer Strike the Gold (1991) and front-runner Go for Gin (1994), and was fifth in 2004 with LaPenta's first Derby colt, The Cliff's Edge. "There's nobody better at preparing a horse for the Derby than Nick Zito," LaPenta said. "War Pass had a very aggressive 2-year-old campaign [four races in three months], and we're just hoping to have him at his best on Derby Day."
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The generally happy recap
My picks for Saturday had mixed results, with Visionaire ($11) winning the fog-enshrouded Gotham Stakes, the Pyro-Blackberry Road exacta box being half right (useless) in the Louisiana Derby, and best bet Jazzy running second in the Bienville Stakes turf sprint at the Fair Grounds.
At this point, Pyro is the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby, because even though he's 0-for-3 against undefeated War Pass, I doubt that War Pass can stay 1 1/4 miles with his running style (need to lead) and pedigree (speed-slanted on both sides). Once Pyro found a seam in midstretch Saturday, he immediately shot through and drew clear, but you have to wonder whether trainer Steve Asmussen liked Shaun Bridgmohan's ride all that much. For a few strides, it appeared as if Pyro might be full of run with noplace to go. If he gets in that situation in a bigger field, which he'll surely face on the first Saturday in May, he might not be able to get out until too late. Bridgmohan has been winning everything with Asmussen lately, but if Pyro has traffic problems in his final Derby prep, might Asmussen be tempted to reach out for Curlin's rider, Robby Albarado?
Majestic Warrior's 3-year-old debut was much better than his seventh-place finish might indicate. He was three- or four-wide all the way around, had to go to the middle of the track entering the stretch and briefly loomed as a threat in midstretch before tiring badly. Clearly, he needed the race, and his move on the final turn was quite impressive for a colt making his 3-year-old debut in only his fourth lifetime race after a layoff of five months. Watch for him next time at a big price. I'm not tearing up my Derby Future Wager ticket on him yet.
Jazzy was second, but thankfully I had boxed her with the Bienville's 10-1 winner, Danceroftherealm, and the $136 exacta made it a profitable day for me.
At this point, Pyro is the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby, because even though he's 0-for-3 against undefeated War Pass, I doubt that War Pass can stay 1 1/4 miles with his running style (need to lead) and pedigree (speed-slanted on both sides). Once Pyro found a seam in midstretch Saturday, he immediately shot through and drew clear, but you have to wonder whether trainer Steve Asmussen liked Shaun Bridgmohan's ride all that much. For a few strides, it appeared as if Pyro might be full of run with noplace to go. If he gets in that situation in a bigger field, which he'll surely face on the first Saturday in May, he might not be able to get out until too late. Bridgmohan has been winning everything with Asmussen lately, but if Pyro has traffic problems in his final Derby prep, might Asmussen be tempted to reach out for Curlin's rider, Robby Albarado?
Majestic Warrior's 3-year-old debut was much better than his seventh-place finish might indicate. He was three- or four-wide all the way around, had to go to the middle of the track entering the stretch and briefly loomed as a threat in midstretch before tiring badly. Clearly, he needed the race, and his move on the final turn was quite impressive for a colt making his 3-year-old debut in only his fourth lifetime race after a layoff of five months. Watch for him next time at a big price. I'm not tearing up my Derby Future Wager ticket on him yet.
Jazzy was second, but thankfully I had boxed her with the Bienville's 10-1 winner, Danceroftherealm, and the $136 exacta made it a profitable day for me.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Saturday stakes picks
LOUISIANA DERBY: Pyro's last-to-first rally Feb. 9 in the Risen Star Stakes anointed him as the "now" 3-year-old, and we'll see if it's still his time. A bounce is less likely because he only ran hard for the final quarter-mile after loping along behind a very slow pace. He's facing better horses but I find it hard to take a strong stand against him, and I can't bet him to win at puny odds. His stablemate J Be K should ensure a quick pace to set up Pyro's late move.
Adding intrigue to the 1 1/16-mile prep are the returns of stakes-winners Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, each making his season debut. It's hard to expect either will be fully cranked, so advantage to Pyro again. He may not win May 3 in Louisville but he should be hard to beat in the Big Easy. I'll play him in a $10 cold exacta over strong closer Blackberry Road, a longshot who switches to Robby Albarado after two very bad trips under Calvin Borel. I'll also reverse it for $5 just in case.
BIENVILLE STAKES: My best bet of the day runs in this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint the race after the Louisiana Derby. Jazzy won from off the pace at the same distance on the grass at Saratoga, and there's enough pace to set up her late move on a course that's often kind to closers.
GOTHAM STAKES: With rain expected all night Friday right through Saturday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the track so sloppy that the card gets canceled. The undefeated Giant Moon should face pace pressure from Roman Emperor and Saratoga Russell, although he has won on a drying-out track and proved last time he could rate from up close. Visionaire ran a solid, even third behind Pyro in the Risen Star and should like it wet. He comes from out of it, so post 10 may not hurt him that much. A speed bias would be a major problem for him, so I'll wait to see how the track is playing. If closers and midpack types are doing OK, I might put a few bucks on Visionaire.
Handicapped a bunch of other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream but didn't find any more plays with any value. Maybe I'm getting too picky in my old age, but I always find that the fewer bets I make, the better I do.
Adding intrigue to the 1 1/16-mile prep are the returns of stakes-winners Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, each making his season debut. It's hard to expect either will be fully cranked, so advantage to Pyro again. He may not win May 3 in Louisville but he should be hard to beat in the Big Easy. I'll play him in a $10 cold exacta over strong closer Blackberry Road, a longshot who switches to Robby Albarado after two very bad trips under Calvin Borel. I'll also reverse it for $5 just in case.
BIENVILLE STAKES: My best bet of the day runs in this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint the race after the Louisiana Derby. Jazzy won from off the pace at the same distance on the grass at Saratoga, and there's enough pace to set up her late move on a course that's often kind to closers.
GOTHAM STAKES: With rain expected all night Friday right through Saturday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the track so sloppy that the card gets canceled. The undefeated Giant Moon should face pace pressure from Roman Emperor and Saratoga Russell, although he has won on a drying-out track and proved last time he could rate from up close. Visionaire ran a solid, even third behind Pyro in the Risen Star and should like it wet. He comes from out of it, so post 10 may not hurt him that much. A speed bias would be a major problem for him, so I'll wait to see how the track is playing. If closers and midpack types are doing OK, I might put a few bucks on Visionaire.
Handicapped a bunch of other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream but didn't find any more plays with any value. Maybe I'm getting too picky in my old age, but I always find that the fewer bets I make, the better I do.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
The Future is now
In England it's called the ante-post market, and it's been an ATM for bookmakers there for many generations. The come-on: Offer tempting, fixed odds on a horse to win a specific major stakes (Grand National, 2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby) that can be six months down the road. Many horseplayers can't resist taking a shot on a long-term fantasy coming true, but if your horse gets hurt, doesn't run or loses by a nose, you lose. Sure, you get what looks like great value, but deep down, you know it's just a stab and a sucker bet. Not impossible, but very difficult.
Ah, but when your vision becomes reality, the bragging rights are sweeter than the payoff. I hit the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in 2001 with Monarchos, who paid off at 17-1 in pool 1. Of course, he went off at 10-1 on Derby Day, so psychologically it wasn't that rewarding. It felt great anyway, and last year I really did it right. In March I got the absurdly generous price of 8-1 on Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks from a well-known poker Web site. Its horse-price guy deserved to be fired, because seven weeks later she dominated the Oaks as the 3-2 favorite as I exulted at Churchill Downs, shaking my fist and yelling, "I had her at 8-1!8-1!" As I sang "I went from rags to riches," I was loving life. Unfortunately, it took more than three months to collect my winnings of $160, the longest I've ever stood on a line, virtual or otherwise, to cash. Even when you win in the most glorious way possible, life demands a vigorish.
So thanks to Monarchos and Rags to Riches, I'm ahead of the futures game, but if I keep playing it, that most likely will change. But not for a while, so last month I put $5 down on three 3-year-olds, getting 47-1 on Blackberry Road, 18-1 on Majestic Warrior and 18-1 on Crown of Thorns (now, unfortunately, injured and off the Triple Crown trail). I'm still alive with Blackberry Road and Majestic Warrior, both of whom are running Saturday in the Louisiana Derby. They'll have to beat Pyro, the 5-1 favorite among the 23 individual runners in pool 1. The field (all other 3-year-olds) was the 3-1 favorite, and last year's Juvenile champion, the undefeated War Pass, was 6-1.
Pool 2 opened Thursday and closes Sunday, and I won't be participating. If either of my horses pulls a serious upset in New Orleans, his price won't be worth taking. If they finish up the track, their chances for glory on the first Saturday in May will be pretty grim. If so, so what? What's $15 out the window when I've got my memories of Monarchos and Rags to Riches. Sometimes it pays to be a foolish dreamer.
Ah, but when your vision becomes reality, the bragging rights are sweeter than the payoff. I hit the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in 2001 with Monarchos, who paid off at 17-1 in pool 1. Of course, he went off at 10-1 on Derby Day, so psychologically it wasn't that rewarding. It felt great anyway, and last year I really did it right. In March I got the absurdly generous price of 8-1 on Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks from a well-known poker Web site. Its horse-price guy deserved to be fired, because seven weeks later she dominated the Oaks as the 3-2 favorite as I exulted at Churchill Downs, shaking my fist and yelling, "I had her at 8-1!8-1!" As I sang "I went from rags to riches," I was loving life. Unfortunately, it took more than three months to collect my winnings of $160, the longest I've ever stood on a line, virtual or otherwise, to cash. Even when you win in the most glorious way possible, life demands a vigorish.
So thanks to Monarchos and Rags to Riches, I'm ahead of the futures game, but if I keep playing it, that most likely will change. But not for a while, so last month I put $5 down on three 3-year-olds, getting 47-1 on Blackberry Road, 18-1 on Majestic Warrior and 18-1 on Crown of Thorns (now, unfortunately, injured and off the Triple Crown trail). I'm still alive with Blackberry Road and Majestic Warrior, both of whom are running Saturday in the Louisiana Derby. They'll have to beat Pyro, the 5-1 favorite among the 23 individual runners in pool 1. The field (all other 3-year-olds) was the 3-1 favorite, and last year's Juvenile champion, the undefeated War Pass, was 6-1.
Pool 2 opened Thursday and closes Sunday, and I won't be participating. If either of my horses pulls a serious upset in New Orleans, his price won't be worth taking. If they finish up the track, their chances for glory on the first Saturday in May will be pretty grim. If so, so what? What's $15 out the window when I've got my memories of Monarchos and Rags to Riches. Sometimes it pays to be a foolish dreamer.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Another Curlin for Asmussen?
He's training the defending Horse of the Year and one of the leading 3-year-olds, and they're half a world apart, in the Middle East and the Big Easy. While Curlin awaits the $6-million Dubai World Cup on March 29 in his stall at Nad al Sheba Racecourse, Steve Asmussen is preparing Pyro for Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Louisiana Derby. When I asked him Tuesday if Curlin's emergence as King of the World lessened the pressure to win his first Kentucky Derby, Asmussen said, "The success we've had with Curlin has been very satisfying, but it's separate. I think Pyro is a tremendous opportunity. . . It's been good fortune. Coming from a racing family, I know it doesn't have to go this way. It means everything to us."
Last year Asmussen made his Triple Crown breakthrough when Curlin ran down Street Sense in the final jump of the Preakness. Asmussen hopes Pyro will give him his first Derby, and his last-to-first rally last time out in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds was very encouraging.
Asmussen was watching at ground level between the eighth pole and the sixteenth pole when jockey Shaun Bridgmohan took Pyro wide entering the stretch and blew away the field. "Watching it outside live, it was very impressive to watch him accelerate," Asmussen said. "My reaction was somewhat of disbelief."
Although Pyro lost three times last year to 2-year-old champion War Pass, Asmussen said he is more confident about Pyro's Derby chances than he was about Curlin's. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner didn't make his career debut until Feb. 3, and after his first-out runaway for trainer Helen Pitts, Curlin was sold and switched to Asmussen's barn. He had only two more races before the Derby, where he predictably ran greenly early and finished a distant third.
"The time frame with Curlin was very tight," Asmussen said. "With Pyro, we've been working with him since May and experience isn't an issue."
Pyro is "big and scopy, a majestic-looking horse", Asmussen said, and his pedigree (by Pulpit) and late-running style should pose no problems for the classic distances. His temperament is a concern, though. He got very upset before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when he was second to the front-running War Pass but was one of the few horses to make up ground late that day in the slop at Monmouth Park.
"He's on the nervous side. I think we have an extremely talented individual without the maturity of Curlin. The way he finished in the Risen Star showed he's obviously a very fast horse. I'm trying to work on what he does in the middle of the race, to get him from point A to point B."
Last year Asmussen made his Triple Crown breakthrough when Curlin ran down Street Sense in the final jump of the Preakness. Asmussen hopes Pyro will give him his first Derby, and his last-to-first rally last time out in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds was very encouraging.
Asmussen was watching at ground level between the eighth pole and the sixteenth pole when jockey Shaun Bridgmohan took Pyro wide entering the stretch and blew away the field. "Watching it outside live, it was very impressive to watch him accelerate," Asmussen said. "My reaction was somewhat of disbelief."
Although Pyro lost three times last year to 2-year-old champion War Pass, Asmussen said he is more confident about Pyro's Derby chances than he was about Curlin's. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner didn't make his career debut until Feb. 3, and after his first-out runaway for trainer Helen Pitts, Curlin was sold and switched to Asmussen's barn. He had only two more races before the Derby, where he predictably ran greenly early and finished a distant third.
"The time frame with Curlin was very tight," Asmussen said. "With Pyro, we've been working with him since May and experience isn't an issue."
Pyro is "big and scopy, a majestic-looking horse", Asmussen said, and his pedigree (by Pulpit) and late-running style should pose no problems for the classic distances. His temperament is a concern, though. He got very upset before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when he was second to the front-running War Pass but was one of the few horses to make up ground late that day in the slop at Monmouth Park.
"He's on the nervous side. I think we have an extremely talented individual without the maturity of Curlin. The way he finished in the Risen Star showed he's obviously a very fast horse. I'm trying to work on what he does in the middle of the race, to get him from point A to point B."
Monday, March 3, 2008
No, I just can't do it
Upon further review, as a public service I will not offer my uneducated guesses on Wednesday's Pick 6 at Aqueduct. After going in circles for 20 minutes over the first two formless maiden races in the sequence, I cannot in good conscience pretend to have any insights into these absurd animals. Friends, you're on your own. Adding to the fun, the forecast indicates rain Tuesday and Wednesday will make the inner track sloppy, good or muddy.
Tuesday's post will be about Saturday's Gotham Stakes at the Big A and the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. I am confident I can offer a few logical thoughts about the Triple Crown contenders and maybe even land on the weekend's winners. Hey, how would you like Pyro at 1-2 in the Big Easy?
Tuesday's post will be about Saturday's Gotham Stakes at the Big A and the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. I am confident I can offer a few logical thoughts about the Triple Crown contenders and maybe even land on the weekend's winners. Hey, how would you like Pyro at 1-2 in the Big Easy?
Change your life forever
Way back in September 1985, on the day the Pick 6 debuted in New York, my tiny ticket was shredded after the first race when a 3-5 shot finished up the track at Belmont Park. Since then I've played it only two or three times, all on Breeders' Cup day, and never got more than halfway through. Unless you have unlimited discretionary income and can handle long slumps and brutal near-misses, it's the ultimate sucker bet. Almost everybody loses while a few hit big, so why do TVG, HRTV, the NTRA and all the tracks promote it as the cure for a lifetime of horseplaying aggravation?
Last Saturday at Santa Anita, the carryover-bloated Pick 6 pool on Big 'Cap Day went beyond $1.6 million, and just one ticket had all six for $645,097. It was purchased in Las Vegas, so everyone at the Great Race Place got nothing. Not so great. Thousands walk to the parking lot a few hundred, or a maybe a few thousand, poorer, and this is good for the sport? I can't think of an easier way to blow all your money.
Californians are by far the most susceptible to Pick 6 Fever, perhaps a holdover from the Gold Rush mentality of 1849. Horseplayers from the Golden State love impossibly exotic wagers, and now Santa Anita even features a Super High Five in the final race, where all you have to do is pick the first five finishers in order. Makes hitting a straight triple seem like a lock.
Six-figure carryovers are common out west, especially since form often has disappeared since the installation of quirky synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. As a rule, New York players don't go nuts over the Pick 6, but on Wednesday many otherwise wary bettors will dive in.
For dreamers who love taking a wild stab at a potential fortune, Monday's email from NYRA was most alluring: "Don't miss out on the enormous Pick 6 carryover this Wednesday at Aqueduct!" There's $265,874 in the pool, which should exceed half a million by the time the madness begins with a field of $15,000 state-bred maiden claimers with a total record of 0-for-32. The next race is a $7,500 claimer, and I never bet on any horse I could afford to write a check for. Then there's a $25,000 maiden claimer, followed by two events where there actually is some form to ponder, $75,000 and $50,000 optional claimers with allowance conditions. For those lucky few still alive, the grand finale is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds.
Do you really want to do this? Unlike my friend Craig the Red Sox fan, I won't be trying to hit a grand slam in the fog with the wind blowing in. But give me a few hours and I'll come back with some suggestions on how to torment yourself and blow a few hundred bucks on Wednesday afternoon.
Last Saturday at Santa Anita, the carryover-bloated Pick 6 pool on Big 'Cap Day went beyond $1.6 million, and just one ticket had all six for $645,097. It was purchased in Las Vegas, so everyone at the Great Race Place got nothing. Not so great. Thousands walk to the parking lot a few hundred, or a maybe a few thousand, poorer, and this is good for the sport? I can't think of an easier way to blow all your money.
Californians are by far the most susceptible to Pick 6 Fever, perhaps a holdover from the Gold Rush mentality of 1849. Horseplayers from the Golden State love impossibly exotic wagers, and now Santa Anita even features a Super High Five in the final race, where all you have to do is pick the first five finishers in order. Makes hitting a straight triple seem like a lock.
Six-figure carryovers are common out west, especially since form often has disappeared since the installation of quirky synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. As a rule, New York players don't go nuts over the Pick 6, but on Wednesday many otherwise wary bettors will dive in.
For dreamers who love taking a wild stab at a potential fortune, Monday's email from NYRA was most alluring: "Don't miss out on the enormous Pick 6 carryover this Wednesday at Aqueduct!" There's $265,874 in the pool, which should exceed half a million by the time the madness begins with a field of $15,000 state-bred maiden claimers with a total record of 0-for-32. The next race is a $7,500 claimer, and I never bet on any horse I could afford to write a check for. Then there's a $25,000 maiden claimer, followed by two events where there actually is some form to ponder, $75,000 and $50,000 optional claimers with allowance conditions. For those lucky few still alive, the grand finale is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds.
Do you really want to do this? Unlike my friend Craig the Red Sox fan, I won't be trying to hit a grand slam in the fog with the wind blowing in. But give me a few hours and I'll come back with some suggestions on how to torment yourself and blow a few hundred bucks on Wednesday afternoon.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Distanced, eased
As the Gridiron Guide always says, "There's no future in the prediction business," which I proved again with my futile debut Saturday in the NHC contest. I had only two winners (paying $8.80, $5.20 and $5, $2.40) in 10 races to wind up in a tie for 493rd place with a grand total of $21.40. My lock of the day, War Monger, never looked like a winner and finished a distant third at even money in the Kilmore Mile Handicap on the grass at Santa Anita. At least I didn't put any real money on him because his odds were too low. Amid disappointment, you have to get into what's good.
I missed a few logical winners in contentious races and couldn't have come up with Highly Honored ($61.20), Frankbillnjason ($56.60) or Everafriend, who outran War Monger and paid $20.60. Some geniuses (lucky stabbers?) hit at least one of those bombers, though, because the top three finishers accumulated $140.40, $137 and $136.20 and earned spots in the NTRA/Daily Racing Form National Handicapping Championship next January in Vegas. I'll take another shot April 5 in the NHC's next online contest.
At least I didn't oh-fer, though, unlike the 69 clowns who couldn't get even one horse to finish second. It's always nice to have somebody to look down upon. Thank you, losers, you made my day.
I missed a few logical winners in contentious races and couldn't have come up with Highly Honored ($61.20), Frankbillnjason ($56.60) or Everafriend, who outran War Monger and paid $20.60. Some geniuses (lucky stabbers?) hit at least one of those bombers, though, because the top three finishers accumulated $140.40, $137 and $136.20 and earned spots in the NTRA/Daily Racing Form National Handicapping Championship next January in Vegas. I'll take another shot April 5 in the NHC's next online contest.
At least I didn't oh-fer, though, unlike the 69 clowns who couldn't get even one horse to finish second. It's always nice to have somebody to look down upon. Thank you, losers, you made my day.
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